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Chance Storms Today, Hot Week Ahead.

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Notice the two maps on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. The top one shows the rainfall from Saturday which was largely confined to the SE corner of the state. The second one shows the rainfall totals over the last two days. The amounts shown are from the actual rain gauges in those locations. As was mentioned in yesterday's blog, locally much higher amounts have been reported which were not sampled by this network, so this is actually an under estimate of the amount of rain which has fallen. But, it does provide a good picture of where at least some rain has fallen and also shows that most of us have missed out. So, there has been some spotty relief from the drought, but no widespread drought breaking rains have occurred and that is not expected to change anytime soon.

Today will have a repeat performance in that some scattered showers/storms will be popping up with the daytime heating. Some of those storms will be locally very intense and capable of dropping more than an inch of rain in a short time along with localized, damaging, downburst winds. But, those will be few and far between with the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall on the order of 30% today and less than that on Monday. That means most of us will be left high and dry and after Monday our rain changes go back to the slim to none category.

An axis of deeper moisture remains over the more E and SE portions of the state and on into Arkansas. This is associated with a weakness aloft and will be slow drifting to the W and SW and weakening with time. However, this will provide just enough lift for a few of those badly needed showers/storms to develop with the aid of the daytime heating this afternoon. As this system drifts on to the SW, it will be weakening, so fewer showers/storms are expected on Monday and after that ridging aloft will be building back over the state essentially bringing an end to all but one or two isolated showers/storms for the rest of the week.

This combination of factors should also keep temperatures below triple digits for today and quite likely for Monday as well. However, as the ridge aloft builds overhead during the latter part of the week and through the coming weekend, that means fewer clouds, more sunshine, warmer temperatures aloft, and at the surface widespread triple digit readings.

So, if you happen to catch a good rain today, count your blessings. It is likely to be awhile before we see much more in the way of a cooling shower/storm.

In the meantime, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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