Yesterday turned out to be one of those pleasant surprises in that the rains just kept coming, at least for some lucky folks. Notice the statewide rainfall map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. I have chosen the last 4 days to include the Thursday rainfall as well. During that period, some folks have received a good soaking, but many others are still high and dry. While very beneficial, this is still not the drought breaking rains we desperately need. The second map on the right, also courtesy of the OK Mesonet, shows the plant available moisture at the 4" level. Obviously, much of the state is still too dry and the situation is even worse at greater soil depths.
Fortunately, the latest and greatest guidance that has come in so far overnight is suggesting a much wetter solution to the coming week than what was available just 24 hours ago. If those trends continue, we may well end up putting a serious dent in the drought by the time the week is over.
For today, a weak system will be pushing through the state returning our winds to a northerly direction at 10-15 mph and keeping daytime highs in the 80s. There is also a slight 20% chance of a shower or storm, mainly for the more eastern counties during the afternoon hours.
Monday will start off clear and cool with morning lows in the 50s for most locations which will be close to record levels for this time of year. Sunny skies for much of the day and a light NE wind will produce a quick warm-up, but daytime highs should stay below 90.
Tuesday could be interesting in that an area of showers/storms should be developing in far W OK and will be moving eastward. Right now, it appears that those showers will far apart by the time it gets this far, but there could be a few showers for the more western counties. The cloud debris should keep us below 90 though despite a brisk southerly wind.
Wednesday and Thursday will also be partly cloudy with enough cloud cover to keep daytime highs below 90 the way things are looking now. Also, a few isolated showers/storms cannot be ruled out both days.
Later Thursday and into the day Friday is when the longer range guidance is suggesting a stronger system will be pushing across the state. Will take a wait and see approach and keep the rain chances at 30% for now, but if this trend is verified by later guidance those chances will go up. This system has the potential to also produce some very beneficial rains, hopefully for those locations that have missed out on the recent rainfall.
Given the flip-flops of the recent longer range guidance, the coming weekend is very questionable. For now, it looks like only a slight chance of a shower or storm and daytime temperatures remaining below normal.
Bottom line is that we have several more chances to put a dent in our ongoing drought situation during the coming week. In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.
Dick Faurot
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