As you can see from the max/min map on the right, we had a mighty short thermometer across the state today. Morning lows were generally in the 50s or low 60s and the daytime highs were generally in the 60s or low 70s. The cloudy skies and nearly saturated air mass were responsible for that and we should start off that way again Sunday. In fact, look for a low cloud deck and possibly some light drizzle during the overnight hours and for the first few hours of Sunday. However, as the day wears on the clouds should begin to thin out resulting in a warmer afternoon. The clouds will be thickest the longest over the extreme E and SE counties and they should remain in the 70s but further west we expect to see enough sunshine to make it to at least 80 if not the lower 80s.
Our winds will be pretty much light and variable for the overnight hours and to start the day Sunday with a light SE wind for the rest of the day. A little stronger southerly wind will keep us in the 60s again for Monday morning but look for the winds to be shifting to the north behind a cold front that should be arriving during the late afternoon/evening hours. Partly cloudy skies should prevail for much of the day Monday before the front arrives and the sunshine together with southerly winds for much of the day should push afternoon temperatures into the lower 80s and possibly even the mid 80s for some of us.
There will be a chance of showers/storms with the cold front, but right now it does not appear to be a big rainmaker for us so am keeping the chances at about 20%. The lack of convergence along the frontal boundary appears to be the main limitation to more in the way of rain, so that is certainly subject to change.
Tuesday will then be sunny and noticeably cooler with morning lows in the lower 50s, daytime highs in the 70s, and a brisk northerly wind. That will be followed by another warm up as our winds return to southerly by Wednesday into Thursday with another front waiting in the wings for later in the week. The flow aloft makes timing these frontal boundaries beyond 4 or 5 days in advance problematic so the latter part of the week into the coming weekend is not currently a high confidence forecast. The problem is that a very strong disturbance aloft will be setting up in the Great Lakes later in the week and that will provide a strong N to NW component aloft over the state.
That will bring cold fronts and shots of some pretty cool air our way on a regular basis over the next two weeks as the second map on the right shows. It is showing the departure from normal temperatures for the 8-14 day period ending Sep 29 and clearly shows a strong signal for below normal temperatures not only for us but for a large part of the country E of the Rocky Mountains. So, Fall is definitely in the air.
As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.
Dick Faurot
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