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Fall Has Arrived, But It Will Feel More Like Summer.

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I know today is the first day of the Fall season, but you would never know it by looking at the high temperatures across the state as shown on the map to the right courtesy of the OK Mesonet. You can see the effect of the cool front that moved through this morning keeping temperatures in NE OK in the 70s, but the cooler air is only slowly spreading southward and 90s were pretty common south of I-40 with some locations near triple digits in SW OK.

This shot of cooler air will not stick around for very long either as our winds will be from a more E direction overnight, SE for much of the day Sunday and then a gusty S to SW wind on Monday and Tuesday. That will really warm things back up and also set the stage for a dangerous fire weather situation for early next week.

At least we will be pleasantly cool to start the day Sunday with most of us in the 50s. Clouds are the wild card regarding temperatures for tonight and Sunday as the NW flow pattern aloft will try to work with a more E to SE surface wind which is also an upslope wind. Moisture is very limited, but it looks like we will at least see more clouds for the more northern counties by first thing in the morning and for much of the day Sunday. There may even be a few showers, although not much more than a sprinkle is expected to reach the ground and that will be largely confined to the more northern counties. As mentioned, that will have an impact on temperatures though. 70s are expected for the more northern counties with 80s further south for daytime highs and 90s for SW OK again..

Monday should see more sunshine, no mention of rain, and those gusty S to SW surface winds. Those winds will be blowing at 25 mph or more during the afternoon hours, relative humidity levels should be dropping to near 20% during the time of maximum heating, and daytime highs will likely be well into the 90s. That is a pretty good recipe for a dangerous fire weather situation and more of the same is expected on Tuesday.

As the week wears on, we will keep southerly winds so look for temperatures to be well above normal pretty much all week long. However, some changes will be taking place aloft which should provide at least a slight chance of showers/storms beginning on Wed and then each day for the rest of the week and into the weekend. The longer range guidance remains inconsistent with the GFS keeping most of the rain in KS/MO and the ECMWF bringing a little more of it down our way. Will go with just a slight chance of a shower/storm on any given day till we see more consistency and these differences get sorted out. At least there will be a chance for rain with potentially a more unsettled pattern developing later in the week so there is some hope. Also, the extra cloudiness and what shower activity does occur will bring temperatures down somewhat, although still above normal.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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