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Rainfall Totals Over the Last Few Days.

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The map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, shows the total rainfall over the last 5 days. Obviously, much of the state has received some very beneficial rainfall, in some cases too much came too fast and there were some local drainage problems as well. On the other hand, there are still some sections, particularly for the more northern and NW counties that largely missed out.

Any additional rainfall today will be confined to the extreme E and SE counties by this afternoon and perhaps even into the night tonight. The storm system responsible for the cloudy, wet conditions is slowly working its way on eastward. That means the more E and SE counties will be the last to clear out as drier air eventually works its way southward across the state.

For today, light N to NE winds, cloudy skies, and occasional periods of light rain will keep the more E and SE counties generally in the lower 70s for a daytime high. Those of us further N and W should see at least some afternoon sunshine, enough to bring daytime temperatures into the upper 70s. Temperatures overnight will depend on cloud cover and right now it appears that the clouds will be slow to thin out. That should keep overnight lows around the 60 degree mark.

Monday will see a mixture of sun and clouds and possibly even an isolated shower or two. That will be due to the main storm system aloft moving a little more slowly to the NE and some energy aloft rotating around the backside of the system. Temperatures will again be dependent on the cloud/sun mix, but should see enough sunshine for daytime highs to be in the upper 70s to near 80.

Northerly winds on Monday will be more from the NW on Tuesday. Drier air eventually brought in by the northerly flow will allow our overnight lows to drop into the 50s for Tue and Wed mornings. We should also see more sunshine on Tuesday and afternoon temperatures will be near 80. Wednesday will see a return to southerly winds which will become gusty during the day. Look for daytime highs to be in the 80s Wednesday and near 80 again on Thursday.

However, Thursday is also when the next front should arrive and there are some significant differences in how the longer range products are handling this next cool front. The GFS remains progressive and brings the front on through with only a slight chance of showers and brisk northerly winds over the Fri/Sat time frame along with much cooler conditions. The EURO really does not bring the cooler air down until Saturday and Sunday. Given the uncertainty, will keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast for Thu-Sun and also bring in cooler conditions with the caveat that this is a low confidence scenario. Check back for updates as there could be some significant changes for this time frame.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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