Tuesday Morning Update

Sunny, windy, and warm conditions are likely today with highs in the mid-80s.  A modest cool down is forecasted for the second half of the week as a cold front clears the area tomorrow.  

Temps moved well above the seasonal average yesterday afternoon with highs in the mid-80s.  We're expecting more of the same today with highs from 83 to 87 along with strong south to southwest winds in the 15 to 30 mph range before a fast moving storm system arrives Wednesday afternoon with a slight chance of isolated storms across far eastern OK.  The higher storm chances will remain east of our area, mainly across central Arkansas where severe weather will be a concern.  Our low level moisture is expected to be lacking depth and quality across eastern OK, but the dynamics of the system will be very strong.  If a storm does form tomorrow afternoon as the front approaches the area, the storm could possibly be severe.  Again, we think the higher threat for severe storms will occur in Arkansas. The timing of the frontal passage may change, but I currently have the boundary moving across the Tulsa area by 1pm.  Despite the early arrival, I have chosen to stick with highs in the mid to upper 70s for this forecast cycle regarding the Wednesday high temps.  RAW NAM numbers suggest the temps will be falling into the 60s by 5pm-6pm tomorrow evening along with gusty northwest winds.  

Despite recent rainfall, the fire danger will be increasing slightly today to our west, and may become extreme Thursday due to low humidity and strong northwest winds.  Red Flag Warning criteria may be met Thursday.  

The fast moving upper level trough will bring a cool down to the region for the second half of the week with morning lows in the lower 40s and highs in the upper 60s near 70.  The Midwestern portion of the country will experience a major cool down with some locations in the upper Midwest remaining the 30s for daytime highs Thursday and Friday.  This colder air mass will reside northeast of our area but we'll experience a modest cool down with temps below the seasonal average for the second half of the week. 

Extended data suggests the southern return flow will commence this weekend and low level moisture will attempt to slide across the region Sunday evening into Monday.  This should mark the beginning of a pattern change as the upper level flow will change from a northwest flow aloft to a west to southwesterly flow pattern by the end of next week.  This will eventually bring a storm system near the region by the middle of next week.  This frequent and active upper air pattern is typical for October as the main belt of the westerly's begins migrating southward as the sun angle gets lower and lower across the northern hemisphere.  

Yesterday's high was 86 recorded at 3:09PM.  Today's normal average high is 73 and the low is 51.  Today's daily record high is 93 from 1917 and the low is 32 recorded on this date in 1966.  

Precipitation for the year is currently at 26.76 and is -6.85 inches below the normal average precip.

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Thanks for reading the morning discussion.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone