The forecast is on track for another frontal passage this morning with only a very slight chance for a shower or sprinkle across far eastern OK. The low level moisture is once again lacking in quality across the state as this system moves eastward. The moisture will be intercepted to our south across east Texas and southern Arkansas where some severe storm potential will reside this afternoon and evening. The higher chance for severe storms will occur across southeast Texas into central and northern Louisiana. The colder air will filter into the state this morning through the noon hour along with north winds in the 15 to 25 mph range this afternoon. Our highs will top out in the lower to mid-50s around noon and falling into the upper 40s this afternoon with gusty north winds. We're starting with perfectly clear sky, but model data indicates stratus should quickly develop as the cold air surges southward and mid-level moisture moves up and over the colder air at the surface. The clouds should decrease from northwest to southeast later today allowing temperatures to drop into the lower 30s Tuesday morning. The remainder of the week unfortunately appears dry, but we're seeing some signs of a slight chance of sprinkles or brief showers Thursday and Friday across southeastern OK.
The upper air pattern will remain conducive in bringing another system near the area by the middle or end of this week, but all model data supports keeping the much needed low level moisture suppressed to our south or southeast. This means Friday we may see a shower or two, but the odds would support the more significant precipitation to remain east of the state. This is not a good pattern for the continuing drought stricken areas of the southern and central high plains states. Yet another in a series of powerful Pacific Northwest troughs will slam into the west coast this week, but this will have little impact on our sensible weather.
Temperatures will remain below the seasonal average for the first two days this week with highs near 50. Daytime highs will move into the lower to mid-60s by the second half of the week along with a return to southerly winds. The approaching weekend numbers could hit the lower 70s for afternoon highs along with mid to upper 50s for morning lows.
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