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Records Likely Monday.

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This is just crazy.  Yesterday was a record setting start to the month of December, we were close to setting some more records today, and records will likely fall on Monday.  In fact, the forecast calls for record morning lows to start the day and record afternoon highs to end the day.  Keep in mind, the normal diurnal temperature range for this time of year is 53/32 for the max/min respectively.  Morning lows to start the day Monday should be around the 60 degree mark which will be followed by daytime highs well into the 70s.  And if the low level stratus cloud deck allows for more sunshine than currently expected, we may see some temperatures around 80.  Just crazy.

 OK, so what's going on?  Well, the wind flow aloft remains in a general zonal pattern which is a west to east flow and that keeps the really cold air bottled up well to our north.  There will be a wave moving through that flow later Monday which will bring a cool front into the state arriving near the I-44 corridor after dark Monday night.  This front will push on through the state but the lack of amplitude aloft will allow for only somewhat cooler conditions and the really cold air is still bottled up well to our north.  So, although Tue and Wed will be cooler, temperatures will still be above normal for this time of year.

Also, the lack of amplitude aloft means there is not a lot of energy to produce the widespread showers/storms/rains we so desperately need.  There will be some showers/storms develop along the front Monday night, but they will be most likely for the more eastern and SE counties and even there the quickly moving system should keep rainfall totals to around ¼ inch or so.  The chances of rain will be only about 20% or less NW of the I-44 corridor, near 40% along the I-44 corridor, and around 60% or so for the more SE counties.

Tue-Thu should then be dry and mild with another front moving into the state by Friday.  This system will also have at least a chance of some rain which may well linger into that following weekend.  As noted in the morning discussion, there is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding that time frame as the longer range guidance is just not very consistent as yet.  So, will go with slight chances of lingering showers for the coming weekend along with mild conditions.  In fact, the temperatures that are forecast are still above normal for this time of year. 

Of course the question is: when will we see a decent cool-down.  As mentioned, the longer range guidance has not been very consistent but we keep getting hints that some colder air may surge this way that following week.  Will not get too excited about those prospects though till we start seeing better internal and run to run consistency in these longer range products. 

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.  It is bound to get interesting one of these days.

Dick Faurot

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