Rain Likely Friday Night.

Ok, so we have a decent shot at some badly needed rainfall Friday night; the real issue is how much rain we can expect. Well, the QPF map on the right does not offer much hope and quite frankly it appears to have a pretty good handle on things. A rapidly moving system will be coming out of the southern Rockies and will be pushing a Pacific cool front through the state Friday night and early Saturday. Most of the energy aloft will be further north of us and the better moisture will be further to the SE of us; leaving us in-between. Bottom line is that most of us should see at least some rain, but the amount of rain will only be around a tenth of an inch or so. A few lucky folks may get as much as ¼ inch but obviously this will not even put a dent in the ongoing drought situation.

As mentioned, most of us will see at least some rain from this system as the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall will be at least 60%. That will be most likely during the overnight hours of Friday night although a few showers may occur for the more western counties during the afternoon hours.

Since this system is coming at us from the SW, it will also not have any real cold air to tap into. In fact, look for temperatures to be warmer Saturday behind the system than they will be on Friday ahead of it. The reason for that is the cloud cover that will be spreading over the state by first thing Friday morning and we should be pretty much overcast for the balance of the day. Also, depending on how quickly those clouds move in may impact viewing the Geminid meteor shower that will be peaking after midnight tonight.

At any rate, the clouds and gusty southerly winds should combine for daytime highs well into the 50s Friday which is still much above normal. Saturday will have a more SW wind component, sunny skies, and even warmer temperatures both to start the day and at days end. Those gusty SW winds will also contribute to another enhanced fire danger situation as what rain we get Friday night will quickly dry out.

A northerly wind on Sunday and Monday will cool things off somewhat, but not for long and temperatures will generally be above normal all of next week. Southerly winds will quickly return by the middle of the week and although another cool front should arrive on Thursday, it will be another quickly moving system with little or no moisture to work with.

We are seeing preliminary signs of a stronger system arriving by that following weekend with the potential for a more significant cool-down. If that does work out as expected, then temperatures will have moderated again in time for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Bottom line is that unless we see some significant changes in this weather pattern, our prospects for a white Christmas are pretty much in the slim to none category.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot