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Warm & Windy, Chance Storms Tuesday.

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Keeping a close eye on the rainfall potential as shown by the QPF map on the right. If you recall, the ones I showed yesterday were not as generous as the one this morning so at least the trends are in the right direction. There is still plenty of time for this to change though, so don't get your hopes up too high.

The light shower activity overnight and into the day today will be just that, very light. More of the same may occur tonight and Monday, but the chances of any measurable rainfall remain rather low and what does fall will be on the light side. Tuesday still looks like our best shot at some decent rainfall and as the map on the right shows, some of us could end up with an inch or more.

The showers/storms on Tuesday will be developing along and in advance of a strong cold front that will be pushing across the state during the day. Look for the front to be arriving on this side of the state by around noon and on through the state by late that evening. Some of the storms will have the potential to be severe with the primary threat in the form of damaging winds and possibly some hail. Current indications suggest very limited instability but the dynamics would support a squall line which would move rapidly eastward; thus the damaging wind threat. Unfortunately, our neighbors to the west will likely miss out on the more generous rains and locations further east will have the better chance of some badly needed rainfall. A lot depends on just where the showers/storms initiate as to how much rain we get out of this system and right now it appears they will be forming east of I-35 and quickly moving on eastward from there. If they form along or east of hwy 75, then many of us will miss out and either scenario is possible the way things stand right now.

After that, only a few lingering showers are expected for early Wednesday and it looks like a dry forecast for the rest of the week. Temperatures leading up to this system will be very Spring-like with daytime highs well into the 60s today, the 70s on Monday, and Tuesday likely in the 60s as well. At night, we will be close to setting some records as the low tonight will only be dropping into the upper 50s to near 60 and Tuesday morning will likely start off in the low 60s. However, it will be much cooler to end the day as the cold front ushers in colder air that evening/night.

Gusty southerly winds of 15-30 today and Monday would ordinarily produce a very high fire danger, but dew point temperatures in the 50s and minimum humidity levels only dropping to around 55-60% will mitigate those concerns to a certain extent.

Gusty northerly winds on Wednesday will bring temperatures back to more seasonal levels and some additional weak systems moving through in the NW flow aloft will maintain more seasonal temperatures for the rest of the week. Temperatures will likely moderate some by the weekend.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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