Monday Morning Update
Highs today will be in the lower to mid-70s along with strong south winds at15 to 30 mph. Storm chances will be increasing Tuesday for areas of eastern OK and western Arkansas.
We're going to experience spring like conditions for the next 48 hours before turning colder again Wednesday through the end of the week. And with spring like conditions, we may be in the running for some spring like thunderstorms late tonight into Tuesday.
This morning we're starting with clouds, mild air, and gusty south winds. It's not impossible to see a brief shower or so today across the area but the chances will remain very low. Later tonight, some of the model data is supporting a few showers or storms across extreme NE OK and SE Kansas. If this storms form, there will be a slight chance of severe weather as wind fields aloft and at the surface could sustain and rotate updrafts.
Our better chances will arrive Tuesday as a powerful upper level system draws closer to the area. This upper air trough will bring ample dynamic energy to the region. Low level moisture is currently in place across the eastern third of the state and most indicators point toward an increasing chance of storms Tuesday. Some may be severe with current data supporting the main threats of wind damage.
A quick glance at incoming data early this morning supports showers and storms developing near I-35 by sunrise Tuesday, advancing to near Tulsa between 10am and noon, and moving across eastern OK ( along and east of highway 69) from 1pm to 3pm. The line of storm activity should be advancing into Arkansas by the 6pm hour. We may see a small area of wrap around precipitation (on the back side of the upper trough) across Southeastern Kansas for a few hours pre-dawn Wednesday. If this occurs, some light snow showers would be possible, but this chance remains very low.
Once this system moves eastward, some cooler air will be in place Wednesday through Saturday before a modest warm up occurs Sunday into early next week. We'll see a fast and progressive upper air flow continuing for the next several days with a weak boundary oscillating across northern OK from Thursday into Saturday. The atmosphere will remain too dry for any precipitation during this time period of the forecast.
The high in Tulsa Sunday was 62 at 4:28pm.
The normal daily high average is 48 and the low is 28.
Our daily records include a high of 82 recorded on this date in 1909
and a low of 3 from 1948.
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