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Mild Weather Continues, Slight Chance of Showers.

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Now that we are into February, will take a moment to look back at how the winter has gone so far. The month of January has continued the trend of above normal temperatures which extends through all of last year with the exception of the month of October which was a bit cooler than normal. January ended a little less than 3 degrees warmer than normal and December was more than 4 degrees warmer than normal. So, unless February pulls some real surprises, it is apparent we are well on our way to having a relatively mild winter.

So far there has been no measurable snowfall officially recorded here in Tulsa for this winter. Keep in mind that late February and into March is when we have historically received some of our heaviest snows so there is still the possibility of some decent snowfall before the season is over. In fact, it was on March 28 of 2009 that we received one of our heaviest snows ever and that was also just about the only snow we received that winter. 9.9" fell on that particular day so for those of you wondering when/if we will have any snow this winter, there is still plenty of time left.

However, there is certainly no snow in our near future as temperatures will continue to run above normal throughout this forecast period. Normal daytime highs at this time of year would be right around the 50 degree mark and we will be well above that throughout the coming week. In fact, we should be well into the 50s for the next few days, possibly in the 60s by the middle of the week, then back into the 50s by the end of the week.

There will be a series of frontal boundaries moving across the state throughout the period, but they are rather weak and will not do much more than shift our winds around on a day to day basis. They will not have much moisture to work with either although the system that will move through on Monday could set off a few showers, particularly for the more SE counties of the state. Another boundary on Thursday will carry a slight chance of showers as well.

A relatively benign NW flow pattern aloft is responsible for these weak systems moving across the state every couple of days, but with time that flow will become more zonal or W to E. That pattern is typically a warm one for us which is why we expect to be in the 60s by the middle of the coming week. However, that pattern will also become more amplified in time for the coming weekend when a stronger system aloft should be approaching. Still too early to get too excited about it, but if current trends verify, then we may end up with a very unsettled weekend with a good chance of showers/storms.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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