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Rain Tonight, Wintry Mix Possible Tuesday.

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Although rain is a good bet for tonight, as the QPF map on the right shows, total amounts will be rather light. This product is valid from 6PM this evening through 6PM Sunday evening. Although it will be mostly lighter showers, there should be some thunder which would result in locally heavier totals.

The rain will certainly be welcome, but will not do much to alleviate the ongoing drought. At least we are receiving periodic showers so we are putting a little dent in the drought and with a little luck perhaps a good soaking rain will come our way eventually. We will have another chance of precipitation on Tuesday, followed by little or no mention of precipitation for the rest of the week and into the coming weekend.

Despite a gusty southerly wind, today's cloudy skies have kept temperatures on the cool side and with cloudy skies and a nearly saturated atmosphere, temperatures will hold steady through the night tonight. In fact, if anything temperatures will likely get warmer towards morning. The rain will be ending from W-E early Sunday morning followed by clearing skies and ordinarily that would be due to a cold front pushing across the area. However, the actual cold front will not be arriving till Sunday evening/night so the drying will be due to our winds shifting from southerly tonight to a more SW then W direction during the day Sunday. That will result in a very breezy, warm day with afternoon temperatures soaring well into the 60s.

Relative humidity levels will also be dropping into the low 20% range which together with the gusty SW winds will create an enhanced fire danger situation; despite how much rain is received overnight.

By Sunday evening, the winds will become more northerly which will bring cooler air back into the state for Monday and Tuesday will be much cooler.

As mentioned above, there will also be a chance of precipitation Tuesday, and it could get a little interesting. There continues to be some model differences regarding how wet/cold this system will be. The vertical profile of temperature would support at least some snowfall accumulations, but surface temperatures and ground temperatures may be such that most of what falls would melt. Will see how the next few model runs handle this situation before getting too excited about our wintry weather prospects.

So, in the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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