Tuesday Morning Update

Today should be the best weather day of the week with sunny sky and highs in the lower 50s.  Light winds will be common from the east around 5 mph for most of the day before winds back to the southeast later this evening.  The weather takes a decidedly wet and cold turn Wednesday with a chance of some sleet and snow tomorrow followed by rain and storms Thursday.

 Our cold front moved across the area right on schedule yesterday and did produce a few showers and storms across eastern OK and western Arkansas.  A few of these storms did become severe with some marginally severe hail reported along the far eastern OK vicinity.  The Tulsa area received some sprinkles but the real deal showers and storms did stay confined to the eastern areas.  

Our next system will rapidly move closer to the area tonight and will bring an increase in moisture back across the region Wednesday.  Temperatures will be tricky, but the latest and greatest set of information suggests Wednesday afternoon highs may stay in the mid or upper 30s with temps around 5000 ft. right at freezing.  This could create a snow or sleet profile for the morning to afternoon for before temps  warm slightly late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the main system lifts out across the state.  Thursday should features rain and even thunderstorms, but the higher probability for surface based storms will be located along and south of the Red River Valley.  Elevated instability with the most unstable convective and potential energy may give us a few elevated hail storms Thursday across part of the area, but the chance for severe hail will remain low.   

The winter weather portion of this forecast remains tough to peg.  The NAM bufkit profile is supporting the potential for a few inches of snow near Northern OK tomorrow through midday.  But this model ( NAM) has not had a good winter record for northeastern OK this year.  Many times in the past this season, the model has over predicted the precipitation potential with winter systems.  We're inclined at this point to keep a decent mention of the wintry precip potential, but will resist the urge to place any significant totals on the map.  There will be a chance for some freezing rain potential with this system, but the higher likelihood may be confined to far northwestern Arkansas, southwestern Missouri, and extreme northeastern OK for Thursday morning.   

The system should clear the region Thursday midday to early afternoon with winds shifting from the south to the west and northwest by afternoon.  A modest air mass will remain for Friday with morning lows near the upper 20s and highs in the mid-40s.  The first official day of the BASS Masters Classic will be chilly but dry on Grand Lake.  

Saturday we "may " have a few showers or sleet showers by late morning or midday as a weak upper level wave quickly moves from the west to east across northern OK.  We would normally not make too much of such a slight chance of precip, but with over 100,000 visitors near the region for the Classic, we have decided to include a 10% probability for the Saturday time period.  

Sunday another upper level system will be rounding the desert southwest and influencing our weather with strong southerly winds and temps in the 50s.  Sunday should remain dry for most if not all of the day along with partly to mostly sunny conditions early before turning cloudy late.  The system will more than likely not lift out into the state until Monday or Tuesday with a chance of showers or storms followed by some colder air.  

Despite moving into the middle of February, I do remind us all that winter still has plenty of punch left for our area.  While we have had almost NO measurable snow for the season (.10), the majority of the state's top ten all time snowfall events have occurred in late winter including the months of Feb, March, and yes, even early April. 

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 63 recorded at 11:11AM.

The normal high is 54 with the low of 32.

The daily record high is 77 from 2011 and 1981.  The record low is 9 from 1978.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

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I'll be discussing our weather today with Dan Potter and the KRMG Morning News in Tulsa.  I'll also be on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliate stations through the noon hour discussing the weather forecast. 

Today I'll be in Kellyville and Sand Springs along with most of the weather team to begin Trav's Wild Weather Show events.  These schools visits are intended to inform, educate and entertain school kids about weather and weather safety as we move into the severe weather season. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone