This discussion is being posted at 3:07AM.
We're tracking the winter storm across the state this morning. We'll continue to see moderate snow located northwest of Tulsa for the next few hours before the system rapidly lifts northeast away from the state. Surface temps have remained near 32 to 33 degrees during the last few hours. Combined with relatively warm soil temperatures, snow accumulations have been on the light side of the forecast.
The system has created a very tight snowfall gradient located along the I-44 corridor. This means locations southeast of this line have experienced little accumulation, while areas northwest have been experiencing moderate snowfall for the last 3 hours. The early reports (3AM) have about a half an inch across northern Tulsa county to about 3 inches near Nowata. We'll be attempting to pass along snowfall accumulation reports throughout the morning hours as they are received in the office.
The blizzard warnings will expire before most folks are out the door this morning across extreme northern and northwestern sections of our viewing area. The winter weather advisory for the Tulsa metro will expire by noon or earlier. I'll direct your attention to the watch/warning status information bar located at the top of this weather page for the very latest regarding county specific information of winter products.
Strong winds in the 20 to 30 mph range will decrease speeds during the next few hours in the 10 to 20 mph range. Temps will remain in the upper 30s across northern OK and some lower to mid-40s across the southeastern sections of the area.
After today, the rest of the 7 day planner is basically a temperature forecast. We have elected to disregard the computer model suggestions (MOS) for the next few days until we see how the atmosphere responds to the snow fields just north of the area. Considerable snow fields will be located across Kansas, and part of northern Ok for the next few days and this will keep temps down from normal projections. We will no doubt be making some adjustments to the temps in the 7 day planner, but the trend will remain for below normal readings through Friday.
Another fast moving but very weak upper level impulse may brush the southeastern Kansas vicinity Wednesday with a few flurries, but this system, at least at this point, should not be a player for the NE OK area.
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Have a nice but safe afternoon.