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Warmer Monday, Cooler Tue/Wed.

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What a difference a day can make. After a week of daytime highs only in the 40s, and barely even that at times, we have soared into the 60s this afternoon. Notice the daytime high map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, on the right which also shows that the SW corner of our state made it all the way up to 81. Of course, this is early March so it will not last and in fact our next cool front is still scheduled to move across the state during the day Monday. It has been delayed somewhat and now appears that it will be moving across this side of the state during the early to late afternoon hours.

Gusty southerly winds will continue ahead of the boundary keeping us much milder for tonight. In fact, temperatures should drop off initially this evening and early tonight, then level off in the 40s by morning. During the day Monday, gusty S to SW winds will shift around to the NW as the cool front moves through. The SW winds ahead of the front and the afternoon arrival of the front itself should result in daytime highs well into the 60s with even some 70s before the cooler air starts filtering in Monday evening/night.

Also, the veering wind profile with S/SW/NW winds minimizes the surface convergence along the front and together with a lack of either low level or deep moisture will keep our rainfall chances to a minimum. There may be a few very isolated showers behind the cool front for the more eastern counties Monday night into early Tuesday morning, but that should be about it. There may even be a few brief flurries in the extreme NE counties early Tuesday morning with the colder air, but no accumulation.

That will be followed by a return to below normal temperatures for Tue/Wed with daytime highs near 50 and morning lows around the freezing mark. Clouds Tuesday morning will also be clearing during the day so lots of afternoon sunshine for Tuesday into Wednesday is also expected.

After that, things will start to warm back up for the latter part of the week and into the coming weekend. In fact, we should be well into the 60s for the weekend along with overnight lows only dropping into the mid-upper 40s. Clouds will also be returning during that period in advance of a rather vigorous storm system aloft that will be coming our way. The longer range guidance has been pretty consistent so far, but still has some location/timing/intensity issues that will come into better focus with better data over the next few days. Bottom line is that this system still looks promising for being a good rainmaker for much of the state during the weekend.

In fact, notice the updated QPF map on the right which is valid through Sunday evening. As you can see, it has a bulls-eye centered right over OK and most of the state is in the running for well over an inch of badly needed rainfall. That is certainly subject to change depending on the ultimate movement of that storm system, but it sure looks promising at this time.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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