Howdy! Welcome to Friday!
We're looking at a windy and warm day ahead of us with highs in the lower 80s. A gusty southwest surface wind in the 15 to 25 mph range combined with low humidity and dry vegetation will lead to an enhanced fire danger across the area. We had several grass fires across the region yesterday, and if a fire starts today, the fire spread conditions would be quite high. Please use caution.
The next system is still on track for Saturday evening into Sunday. The surface cold front arrives tomorrow afternoon as south winds will shift to the north by 3 to 5pm as the boundary moves over northern OK. The boundary will more than likely slide south of I-40 before stalling late Saturday night into Sunday morning. A weak upper level disturbance will arrive from the northwest allowing for some post frontal showers and storms late Saturday evening into Sunday morning. The higher probability for this activity will remain near highway 412 north and generally east of I-35. The EURO continues to keep most of the precip slightly north compared to the GFS, but we'll stick with our 40% pop for the time period of Saturday late into Sunday midmorning.
The temperatures Sunday may end up on the cold side, and we have adjusted the highs down a few degrees from our previous forecasts. The RAW NAM output suggests temps may stay in the upper 40s Sunday, but we'll keep the high near 52 for now and see how things shake out in the next two model runs. The boundary that moves across the area Saturday night will attempt to move northward by early Monday morning for a few hours before sliding rapidly southeast by midmorning. A few showers may be possible Monday but this probability will remain near or less than 20%.
Tuesday will more than likely be one of the better days of next week with sunshine and highs near 60. But the pattern for the remainder of the week looks very unsettled.
The GFS and EURO data both offer another system nearing the area Wednesday and Thursday but the two models offer big differences in the placement of the surface low. The GFS would bring the low northward across northern OK Thursday into Friday with a chance of strong to severe storms. The EURO would keep the surface low across north Texas for the late week system bringing rain and much colder air for the end of the week into the weekend. Stay tuned!
The high yesterday was 79 at 4:37pm..
The daily normal average high is 62 and the low is 40.
Daily records include a high of 84 from 1921 and 1914 along with a low of 21 from 1970 and 1962.
You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.
I'll be discussing our weather with Dan Potter and the KRMG Morning News this morning. I'll also be forecasting statewide and regional weather on the Oklahoma Radio Network throughout the day.
Thanks for reading the Friday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog!
Have a great day!