Warmer Mon, Tue; Much Colder Later This Week.

As the rainfall map to the right shows, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, the rainfall so far today has been on the light side which is pretty much what was expected. There are still a few light showers around, so some of the more eastern counties may add a little more to those totals as we go through the night tonight, but not much more. After that, the beginning of the week will be on the dry side before a more unsettled pattern develops in the latter part of the week. Also, after the very cool conditions of today, look for daytime temperatures to rebound till Wednesday when much cooler air will once again move back over the state. In fact, despite the fact that many plants are starting to bud out, freezing temperatures are looking more and more likely by the coming weekend.

Cloudy skies and a light northerly wind tonight will get Monday morning off to a chilly start with morning lows generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Sunshine should return by Monday afternoon and despite a light northerly wind, look for afternoon temperatures near the 60 degree mark.

Tuesday still looks to be the best day of the coming week even though frost will be possible that morning with temperatures in the low-mid 30s. Mostly sunny skies during the day and a more W to SW wind at the surface should result in afternoon highs well into the 60s.

Cooler air will be returning during the day Wednesday with N to NE winds and daytime highs in the 50s to near 60 along with increasing cloud cover. The next storm system will then affect our weather for Thursday and Friday with widespread shower activity, cloudy skies, and much cooler conditions once again. Notice the QPF map on the right which is an areal estimate of the precipitation potential through this coming Sunday. One half inch or more of rain still looks like a reasonable possibility which will not fill up our ponds but will keep the soils moist as we head into the growing season.

The much cooler temperatures could also result in some wintry precipitation potential before it is all said and done, but right now that appears to be a minimal concern.

There remain some inconsistencies in the longer range guidance regarding just how cold it will be during the Thu-Sun time frame. The European guidance continues to be consistently much colder than the GFS and have trended the forecast in that direction. One of the reasons for doing so is the fact that one of the teleconnections that we monitor regarding the potential for a period of below normal temperatures is called the Arctic Oscillation or AO. It is trending strongly negative which suggests some much colder air than normal penetrating deep into the U.S. during that time frame.

That, in turn, suggests the European guidance with its colder solution has a better handle on the situation.  With that in mind, don't be surprised if we have several episodes of below freezing temperatures when the skies clear out this coming weekend and daytime temperatures will be much below normal as well.  In fact, it looks like temperatures will likely remain below normal through the end of this month.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot