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Wednesday Morning Update

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We're looking at cooler conditions today compared to yesterday but sunshine should be abundant for most of the day before clouds begin to move back into the region this evening.  Colder and wet conditions will be moving into the area by Thursday with the cold air sticking around for several days including the weekend.  The unsettled weather pattern will remain for several days.   

Our main issues will revolve around the exact temperatures for Thursday as the surface low begins dropping across the OK TX panhandle regions southeast into the north Texas area.  As this happens tomorrow morning, southeast surface winds will attempt to draw moisture back across part of eastern Oklahoma.   Some showers will begin breaking out Thursday morning with a few thunderstorms possible as the day progresses.  The temps may range from the upper 40s to the lower 50s from the north to south before colder air begins sliding southeast by late Thursday afternoon and evening.  We're sticking with a high near 47 for Thursday, but the RAW NAM indicates highs may stay closer to 42. Areas just east, including a large area of Missouri and a portion of north central Arkansas will see some snowfall Thursday morning through early Friday.  A winter storm watch is underway for portions of Missouri, including the Branson area. Early Friday morning some light freezing rain or sleet may be possible near the OK and SE Kansas state line but this is a very low probability.    The light showers activity will be ending in our immediate area by Friday morning but a few brief showers may occur during the day. 

The next part of the forecast remains uncertain but the trend of colder air will remain in place for the weekend with a chance of rainfall and some wintry precipitation across extreme northeastern OK and SE Kansas.   The EURO and GFS are now slightly closer together regarding the path of the main upper level low, but the run to run consistency remains very poor.  This leads to a low confidence forecast for the Saturday evening and Sunday morning time period.  The main upper level low is trending more northward compared to the past two days.  This would keep most of the wintry precip potential also to our north.  There may still be some rain or showers with this system as it nears, and we'll keep a decent chance of precip in the forecast for the Saturday evening and early Sunday morning time period.  

The pattern will support the colder air lasting into the early to middle part of next week.   The pattern would also support active weather unfolding by the end of next week into the Easter holiday weekend time period.   

Yesterday's high in Tulsa was 60 recorded at 4:42pm.  The normal daily average is 64 and the low is 41. .  The daily records include a high of 92 from 1907 and a low of 11 recorded in 1965. 

You'll hear my forecast this morning with Dan Potter and the KRMG Morning News.  Ill also be discussing statewide weather on the Radio Oklahoma network affiliates across the state. 

Have a super great day.

 

Alan crone

KOTV

 

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