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Wednesday Morning Update

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Yesterday afternoon was absolutely beautiful with sunshine, light winds, and highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s.  Today the south winds will increase speeds with 15 to 25 mph winds likely and a few gust near 30 mph possible.  Short term hi resolution data combined with observational data support an increase in cloud cover today.  Despite the clouds, south winds combined with the late March sun angle will support surface temps moving into the mid-60s.  The fire danger will be elevated across part of the area today due to the gusty winds and dry vegetation.  Please use caution. 

The overall trend will support temps moving into the upper 40s and lower 50s for morning lows by the end of the week along with daytime afternoon highs in the 60s. South winds will be increasing the moisture content and showers and storms will be in the forecast for the extended period.  

The upper air pattern will remain from the northwest to the southeast but the overall flow is relatively weak for the time of year. At the surface, a low pressure area will be forming across the panhandle regions and a surface cold front will begin developing across the central plains.  This boundary will eventually slide across extreme northern OK or southeastern Kansas  Thursday night into Friday morning before oscillating slightly north and south Saturday before finally clearing the area Sunday morning.  The boundary combined with increasing low level moisture and a few subtle upper air disturbances will result in an unsettled weather pattern Thursday through early Sunday morning.  Some showers and storms will be likely during this time period, and despite the weak upper air support, a few of the storms could still become strong to severe due to the presence of the west to east boundary that will be near the region.  The favored time periods at this point would be late Thursday evening into Friday morning, late Friday night into Saturday morning, and then late Saturday evening.   

The data also suggest the boundary will get a shove Sunday morning and will move southward to the North Texas area leaving most of the Sunday in fine shape with sunshine, north winds, and highs in the 60s.   

Another major upper level system currently off the west coast over the pacific will become the main feature of interest next week as it moves inland and near the central or southern plains.  The exact outcome of this low remains questionable, but the general consensus would support a slight weakening of the low once it approaches the state.  At the surface another stronger front would arrive Monday afternoon with a round of showers and storms followed by colder air Monday evening into Tuesday or possible even Wednesday.  This cool down is not expected to be as robust as the last cold snap we have been experiencing, but a noticeable dip in temps will be expected.  Obviously we are beginning to move into a climatological period favoring strong to severe storm opportunities but the severe weather threat with this system will remain low at this point.  It's worth mentioning that yesterday's runs of the longer range models indicated some wintry precip potential for Wednesday.  The data is not supporting this solution today, but the low is more than likely not being modeled correctly due to the positioning off the west coast over the pacific which limits the ability of true objective observational data.  In other words, these solutions could flip several times between now and the weekend.  Stay tuned.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 51 recorded at 5:18pm.

The normal daily average high is 66 and the low is 43.

 

Our daily records include a high of 88 recorded both in 1956 and 1910.  The record low for this date is 13 from 1913.

 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

 

I'll be discussing the weather today on numerous Radio Oklahoma Network affiliates through the early afternoon.

 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

 

Have a super great day!

 

Alan Crone

 

 

 

 

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