I don't like to do this, but have made some big changes in the weather forecast over the next couple of days. These spring-time weather events can be exasperating and at times we have a good handle on the situation and at other times, not so good. For example, we started this week with snow flying and as much as 3" on the ground along the OK/KS state line back on Monday. The guidance did a much better job with that situation and gave us some strong hints at how cold that system was going to be. The guidance over the last few days strongly suggested another shot of very cold air arriving this coming Monday, although not with the wintry precipitation. Well, all the data that has been coming in so far today has backed off on that scenario considerably with the colder air not arriving till later in the day Monday followed by some chilly, wet conditions through the middle of the week.
At least Easter Sunday looks promising, particularly for the afternoon and evening time frame. A weaker cool front will be pushing across the state during the overnight hours tonight. A few showers/storms are trying to develop ahead of the front this evening as I write this, but most of the wet weather should hold off till after midnight as the front pushes on through. That means there will likely be some lingering showers into the morning hours of Easter Sunday which would impact any Easter sunrise services that are scheduled. Also, a few of these could become marginally severe with primarily a wind/hail threat.
By Easter afternoon, we expect to have lots of sunshine and temperatures rebounding into the 70s after starting off near 50. We will also have light northerly winds, so all in all a pretty nice day after getting off to a relatively wet start.
Changes are still coming our way on Monday, just much later in the day. The day will start off mild with morning lows near 50 and we should moderate into the 60s by late morning or early afternoon. The cold front is not now on tap to arrive during the afternoon hours with temperatures quickly falling back into the 50s and down to near 40 by Tuesday morning. Also, a Pacific story system aloft is now projected to move slowly across the state through mid-week. This will keep us cloudy and quite cool with temperatures generally holding in the 40s along with a good chance of rain. That system will finally move on eastward by late in the week and southerly winds will be kicking back in for the coming weekend. That should get us back into the 70s by Saturday and Sunday.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.
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