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Mild, Chance Storms.

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Very mild, spring-like weather will be the general rule until Tuesday night when a vigorous cold front brings some much cooler air back into the state. Along with the spring-like temperatures will also come a chance for spring-time storms, particularly when the front arrives late Tuesday and through the overnight hours.

Between now and then, there will be a slight chance of storms, particularly for the more northern counties late this afternoon and early tonight and again late Monday afternoon. Given the time of year and the overall pattern, any of these could become severe but the greater risk for severe storms still looks to be late Tuesday or more likely that night.

For today, gusty SE winds and mostly cloudy skies will result in afternoon highs in the low-mid 70s. A weak boundary along the OK/KS state line may be a focus for showers/storms to form late this afternoon and if so, some of those could become severe. The overall risk of storms is rather low though with the areal coverage expected to be only on the order of 20%. Monday will be even more conditional as a stronger capping inversion aloft will make it more difficult for any showers/storms to develop, but if any can break through they would also have the potential to become severe. Again, the areal coverage will be only on the order of 20% or less. Temperatures Monday will continue very mild with morning lows near 60 and daytime highs in the 70s under mostly cloudy skies and with brisk southerly winds.

Tuesday could be more interesting, particularly late in the day and that night. Mostly cloudy skies and very mild temperatures with morning lows in the lower 60s and daytime highs back into the 70s will prevail for much of the day. As mentioned above, a rather strong cold front will arrive that night and will likely be accompanied by showers/storms and those will have the greatest likelihood of being severe. However, any storms that may form late that afternoon ahead of the cold front will be the greatest threat and right now that is dependent on how strong the capping inversion is during the day.

Right now, it appears that a line of showers/storms will accompany the cold front as it moves through Tuesday night, but some energy aloft will linger behind the boundary keeping us cloudy with lingering light rain or showers for much of the day Wednesday. Together with gusty NW winds, that will make for a chilly, raw day with temperatures in the 40s or lower 50s for much of the day.

The rest of the week looks to be dry at this time but very cool for Thu and Friday followed by a return to southerly winds and a warming trend going into the weekend.

By the way, the QPF map on the right still suggests the potential for some widespread, generous rains over the next couple of days. Hopefully, the heavier rains will fall where it is most needed this time around.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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