The active weather pattern will remain for the next few days with a chance of showers and storms, some of which may be strong to severe. A slight chance of a few thunderstorms will remain for the next few hours across northern OK. These would not be severe but could produce some small hail. After the next few hours (4am to 7am) the cap of warm air aloft should limit thunderstorm development for most of the day for most of the area. Strong south winds and mostly cloudy conditions will still support afternoon highs in the lower 70s.
A few big supercells cranked up yesterday afternoon across eastern Kansas producing very large hail and damaging winds. Thankfully those storms stayed north of our immediate area. A few storms developed around 2am this morning near Tulsa and moved to the northeast. After sunrise, any showers or storms would more than likely remain just north or east of the state line and be somewhat elevated in nature. Again, our chances will remain very low but not zero for the next few hours.
Tuesday the main upper level system will be drawing closer to the southern plains and this will effectively shove a surface boundary into the state Tuesday morning. By the afternoon, this boundary will be near the I-35 area and could result in scattered storm development including the threat of severe weather. A limiting factor may be the CAP or the layer of warm air aloft across eastern OK. Any storm that manages to form across eastern OK Tuesday afternoon or early evening ahead of the boundary would be severe with all modes of severe weather a possibility. As the main upper air system draws near, the air flow will become parallel to the surface boundary. This should result in a squall line or at least a few line segments of thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Some data is even suggesting the downdrafts would quickly undercut the updrafts resulting in a mainly post frontal system by pre-dawn Wednesday. This would greatly limit the severe weather potential after the initial early hours of the event late Tuesday night.
The air mass behind the system Wednesday continues to look cold to me with highs in the lower 40s along with north winds and mostly cloudy sky. The sky will clear out Thursday but the cooler air will stick around until Friday morning before another upper air trough begins to impact the area this weekend. At this point, I will make a slight mention of showers or storms for the Saturday period of the extended but this will remain low.
The high in Tulsa yesterday was 68 from 10:03AM.
The normal daily average high is a70 and the low is 47.
Daily records include a high of 89 from 2011 and a low of 26 from 2007.
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Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.
Bottom line for today and tomorrow: Spring means the chance of severe weather. Remain alert if storms form or move into your area.