We're continuing to monitor the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and overnight across portions of northeastern and eastern OK as a strong cold front and upper level system approach the area. Windy and mild conditions will continue today with highs in the mid- to upper 70s before the system draws near the area. The CAP or layer of warm air aloft should suppress most thunderstorm activity for most of the day. But later this afternoon and early evening, storms will develop west of the I-35 corridor. If storms can develop ahead of this dry line super cell thunderstorms producing large hail would be likely. Additionally the threat of tornadoes will also exist today in the early stages of the system across central OK. The last run of the NAM also suggests some storm formation may occur well ahead of the main system along the eastern OK areas. This probability remains low, but if storms do form, they would also be quite severe with all modes of severe weather possible.
A dry line will be established across western OK this morning and will begin moving eastward. A very strong cold front will be moving through the intermountain region and into the central plains this morning where significant snowfall is occurring. This cold front will overtake the dry line by later tonight (10pm to midnight) and additional storms will develop. The wind profile will be more parallel to the boundary by later tonight supporting the formation of a squall line type formation. As this happens, the main threat will transition to damaging winds and some golf ball hail. The threat of small but fast spin up tornadoes within the line will remain but should be a low probability.
The data suggests the downdrafts of the storms will quickly move under the updrafts around the 1am to 2am hour. This would tend to allow the storms to be slightly elevated in nature and probably residing mainly on the cold side of the boundary after the cold front catches the dry line. This process will more than likely take place around the 1am to 2am time period slightly east of the Tulsa area. A few severe storms may persist through the 2am to 4am hour across extreme southeastern OK but the threat should quickly end once the colder air undercuts the updrafts.
The next issue, believe it or not, is the magnitude of the cold air and residual moisture. The main upper air trough may not totally clear the area until late Wednesday night or possibly even Thursday morning. The NAM is much colder faster compared to the GFS and EURO and would offer the possibility of some freezing rain potential by 10am Wednesday morning near the Highway 69-75 corridor westward to east of I-35. I will not make any mentions of this very low scenario at this point but will obviously monitor the data closely and make adjustments if deemed needed later today. The NAM suggests our highs would be in the lower 40s tomorrow with gusty north winds! Regardless, we're in for a big shock regarding the temps for Wednesday as we'll hit the mid-70s today! The colder air will quickly modify with highs Thursday in the mid-50s and nearing 60 Friday. Morning lows Thursday morning and Friday morning will have a shot of hitting the freezing mark for some locations near or north of Tulsa.
The GFS and EURO both suggest another weak wave Saturday morning that may produce some light showers or possibly a rumble of thunder but the coverage is expected to remain low. We'll keep this slight pop of the map at this point, but will mention a slight chance of showers or storms Monday across northern OK.
The data and pattern would support a robust warm up early next week with another system approaching around the 15th to 17th.
The high yesterday in Tulsa was 74 recorded at 6:52am.
The normal daily average high is 70 and the low is 47.
Our daily records include a high of 90 recorded on this date in 2011 and 1930. The low record is 24 from 1914.
I'll discuss our weather this morning with Dan Potter and the KRMG Morning News.
You'll also hear my statewide and regional forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates throughout the state through the noon hour.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.
Have a super great day!