A few showers or storms will be a possibility today and tomorrow. Storm chances will increase Wednesday and Thursday. Some may be severe. Temperatures today will be cool north and warm south.
Good Morning! I'm running behind schedule, so I'll keep the discussion on the short side this morning!
Wow. The potential for a big temperature bust in the forecast is high today due to the position of a cold front across the area. This front will keep locations north of the boundary in the upper 50s and lower 60s with location south of the boundary in the 70s and lower 80! Some light drizzle is a possibility this morning north of the boundary across extreme northern Ok and southern Kansas. Later this afternoon, after the 4pm hour, there may be a few storms attempting to fire up near the boundary across east central OK. If they do manage to form, a few could be severe with large hail the primary threat.
Temps in Tulsa this afternoon should stay in the lower to mid-60s with locations near McAlester around 80.
This boundary will be basically in the same position tomorrow and would also present relatively cooler air north of the front and warmer air south. But Tuesday night as a stronger upper level impulse approaches the area, a new surface low pressure area will rapidly develop to our northeast. This will cause the front to move northward as a warm front and bring warm and moist air back across the state into southern Kansas. Once the main upper level trough draws closer to the area, thunderstorms will begin to form Wednesday into Thursday across the state. The higher chance of severe weather may occur Wednesday afternoon and late evening with all modes of severe weather a possibility. The SPC has already placed a large area of the state in a "moderate risk" for severe weather for the Wednesday time frame.
The main trough is not expected to clear the area until Thursday midday, and this will keep a decent chance of showers and storms in the Thursday morning forecast with colder air arriving Thursday midday to afternoon. This cold air mass may knock our highs down into the upper 40s Thursday afternoon, but I have no confidence in dropping to these readings at this hour. I'll keep the Thursday highs in the lower 50s for this forecast cycle. There will be a slight chance that we'll see a light freeze Friday morning across the northern third of the state with afternoon highs moving back into the mid-50s. The weekend will feature moderating temps with morning lows in the 30s and 40s and daytime highs in the mid to upper 60s. The EURO does bring a weak upper level disturbance back across the state Sunday with a few showers. At this point Ill only make a brief mention In the forecast until we see additional "run to run" support in the data.
The high in Tulsa yesterday was 81 recorded at 2:58pm. Our normal daily average high is 72 and the low is 49. Daily records include a high of 93 from 1936 and a low of 27 from 1928.
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