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Monday Morning Update

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Expect increasing clouds with highs in the lower 70s today.  A slight chance of showers or storms will remain today across extreme northern OK by midday with higher chances late tonight into Tuesday morning.  Much colder air is once again expected Tuesday.  

The next cold front will arrive late tonight into early Tuesday morning with an increasing chance of thunderstorms followed by colder air Tuesday afternoon.  Highs today will be in the upper 60s near 70s but Tuesday temps will fall from the 50s into the 40s by afternoon along with a stout north wind by Tuesday midday.  A few storms may be strong to severe later tonight into early Tuesday morning.  Before the front arrives, a few showers or storms will be possible around midday across extreme northern OK and southern Kansas.  These will not be severe.  

The cold front is located northwest of our area this morning and is moving southeastward at a good clip.  Most of the model  support suggests the front will not arrive until after midnight and wont clear the entire area until about 5am to 7am tomorrow morning.  The moisture content is attempting to improve across the area today, but the chance of significant severe weather will remain limited with this system.  Our current risk level (out of 3) will be the slight risk assessment from the Storm Prediction Center. 

The chance for severe storms will begin this evening around 9pm across northwestern OK across to southern Kansas and will spread into the north central part of the state through the 2am hour.  A small complex of thunderstorm activity ( MCS) may form around midnight and track east to southeast across northern OK producing strong to severe storms with hail and a few damaging wind gusts the main threat.  The main window for the Tulsa metro will be from 10pm to about 1am for the chance of a few strong to severe storms.  Additional rainfall will be possible Tuesday morning through the midday morning hours across northern OK behind the front.   

The boundary will be clearing southeastern OK by 7am with gusty north winds, some lingering showers, clouds, and cold air.  There may be some light rain Tuesday morning lingering across eastern OK but dry and cold air will rapidly slide across the state tomorrow afternoon pushing the moisture out of the area.  Our temps may start in the upper 40s or lower 50s tomorrow but finish in the lower 40s or possibly the upper 30s by 5pm across northern sections.  We'll continue to use the "inverted temp profile" for the 7 day planner.  This means Tuesday temps will be warmest in the morning and colder in the afternoon. 

The cold air will stick around Wednesday with a light freeze possible near and west of Tulsa for a few hours Wednesday morning.  The air will remain cool for the afternoon with highs back in the 50s.  

Thursday appears fine, but another strong looking system may approach the area Friday into Saturday with increasing storm chances, mainly for the Friday time period.  The EURO is much cooler during this period than the GFS and MOS suggestions.  We'll go under the MOS but not nearly as cool as the interpolated EURO would suggest.  Changes may continue to be made to the extended forecast regarding the temps.   

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 70 recorded at 4:52pm.

The normal daily average high is 74 and the low is 51.

Our records include a high of 91 from 2009, 1965, and 1955.   The low is 32 from this date in 1931.  

 You'll hear my statewide and regional forecast discussion this morning on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

Twitter  @alancrone 

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.


Have a super great day!


Alan Crone



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