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Sunny and Warmer, at Least for a Few Days.

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After a cool, gloomy day yesterday the sunny skies and warmer temperatures today will finally make it feel like Spring. In fact, temperatures will be running above normal through the day Wednesday before another significant cool-down arrives. We will also be dry with our next chance of rain expected late Wednesday or more likely that night and through the day Thursday as the next cold front moves through the state.

Notice the QPF map on the right which is valid through this coming Sunday morning. As you can see, the heaviest precipitation through that period is expected to be centered basically near the state of Iowa although we stand to pick up an inch or so by the time it is all said and done. This will be due to a very strong upper level disturbance which you may recall in yesterday's blog I mentioned was not being handled very consistently by the longer range guidance. Since then, the guidance has been converging on a solution that would keep the strongest part of that system NE of us which is why the heavier precipitation amounts will also be NE of us. In fact, would not be at all surprised if they end up with some significant wintry precipitation by the time it is all said and done.

Around here, enjoy the sunny skies and warmer temperatures for the next few days as when that system arrives temperatures will once again drop by 30 degrees or so. Southerly breezes and the sunshine should get us into the upper 70s to around 80 for this afternoon. Fair skies and a continued southerly breeze will result in a much milder night tonight with morning lows in the mid-upper 50s. Monday will also see lots of sunshine, stronger southerly winds, and afternoon highs reaching the low-mid 80s. More of the same is expected on Tuesday with possibly just a few more clouds in the sky.

Wednesday will be the last of the warm days this week as the cold front looks to arrive that evening or during the overnight hours. Showers and storms, some potentially severe, will likely occur along the front as it pushes through followed by cloudy skies and lingering rain or showers for much of the day Thursday. The cloudy skies, showers, and gusty N winds will hold temperatures to around 50 during the day which will be about 30 degrees cooler than the previous days.

After that, it all depends on the eventual position that upper level system. Once it closes off, then it will be wobbling around for several days and there will be disturbances rotating around it which will produce occasional cloudy skies and chances of light rain or showers. If it is far enough NE of us, then its impacts will be minimal although we will stay quite cool. If closer, then the clouds and showers will be more likely. For now, will keep a very slight chance of some afternoon light showers through the coming weekend with the caveat that those chances may need to come up.

Temperatures will be much below normal through the coming weekend as well with daytime highs expected to stay in the 50s Friday, struggling to reach 60 Saturday, and only in the 60s Sunday. Early morning temperatures will depend on if there is any overnight clearing. If so, then upper 30s are not out of the question along with the possibility of some patchy frost.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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