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Monday Morning Update

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Expect Sunshine and highs in the mid-80s today and tomorrow along with gusty south winds.  Another cold front will arrive Wednesday bringing a chance of storms followed by more cold air Thursday and Friday! 

The first part of the weekend, the clouds stayed longer than anticipated and the temps remained in the 50s and lower 60s for the day.  But yesterday, we finally experienced a Chamber Of Commerce Spring like weather day with afternoon highs in the 70s along with sunshine and light winds.  Compared to the recent weather, the afternoon was a little warm for some folks.  But get ready; we're jumping head first into the mid-80s both today and tomorrow.  But we see another strong cold front arriving soon, and yes, this one may bring another shot of unseasonably cold air back to the state!

The upper air pattern will bring the next strong front into the area Wednesday afternoon or late Wednesday night. The current consensus of model data suggest Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but the timing for this frontal passage may continue to be tweaked with every model run.  The last two runs of the NAM indicate this boundary could arrive by Wednesday afternoon.   Some of the storms may be severe, but once again the data is also suggesting a strong cap ahead of the boundary.  This means most of the precip may be "post frontal" with mainly a hail threat directly behind the boundary.  The data also suggests ( to some degree) a chance of post frontal showers Thursday morning to midday across eastern OK.    

Now for the colder air.  The EURO and the GFS have been suggesting the main upper level low will spin around the central plains and become cut off from the upper air flow.  The data has been all over the place regarding where this " cut off low" will eventually find a home.  The last run of the EURO is now well north of the state, while the GFS keeps this feature around Missouri and Kansas this weekend.  If the GFS is correct, this may keep us in a partly cloudy mix and cool air through early Saturday.  At this point it appears unlikely that will see a freeze by Friday morning across our immediate area, but some locations northward across Kansas may experience another round of freezing temps.  The air mass should moderate by next Saturday and Sunday.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 79 recorded at 5:02pm.

The normal daily average high is 72 and the low is 54.

Daily records include a high of 92 from 1987 and a low of 38 from 1969.


You'll hear my state-wide and regional weather forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma Affiliate stations across the state through the midday hour. 


Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.    Twitter @alancrone


Have a super great day!


Alan Crone




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