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Warmer for a Few Days, Then Colder Again.

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Notice the high/low temperature map on the right so far today, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Quite a contrast to this past Saturday when we tied a record for the coldest daytime high on that date. In fact, we will be close to the record for the warmest daytime high for today's date as the upper 80s will not be too far from the 92 that is the record for today.

Don't get too accustomed to these warm temperatures though as much cooler air is once again headed our way. Tuesday and Wednesday will also be very warm and windy with morning lows in the 60s and daytime highs well into the 80s Tuesday and near 80 on Wednesday. Then, a strong cold front will arrive Wednesday night with temperatures dropping 30 degrees or more for Thursday.

This front will also bring a chance of showers/storms for late Wednesday or more likely through the overnight hours. A few severe storms will be possible as well, but it appears that most of the convection will be well behind the cold front. That should minimize the severe threat, but the cloudy skies and light rain/showers together with gusty N winds will make for a very raw day on Thursday. In fact, the record cool daytime high for Thursday will be threatened as we may not get out of the 40s all day long.

After that, there is more uncertainty than usual. A very strong disturbance aloft will be dropping into the Southern Plains and where it goes from there, how fast, and with what intensity will be a huge factor in our sensible weather going into the coming weekend. The longer range guidance has been very inconsistent in dealing with this particular system so there is not a lot of confidence in any particular scenario at this time.

Bottom line is that temperatures should remain cooler than normal through the weekend and cannot rule out at least a slight chance of showers. Again, depending on just what that system does, we may end up with more rain than currently anticipated. Notice the updated QPF map also on the right, valid through this coming Saturday. Heavier precipitation should be further north into KS/NEB/IA, but that is subject to change.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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