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Warming Trend.

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It should come as no surprise that so far the month of May is getting off to the coldest start ever; temperatures are averaging nearly 14 degrees below normal to this point. Obviously, that cannot last and a warming trend is expected for much of the coming week. However, even the warming trend will only get temperatures to near or slightly above normal. Then, another cool front will arrive in time to cool us off below normal again for the coming weekend and temperatures running a bit below normal are expected to extend into that following week.

Notice the two maps on the right which are the projections for the month of May. The top map shows the expected temperature anomaly and the bottom one the precipitation anomaly for the month. Obviously, the month of May has a rather strong climatic signal favoring below normal temperatures on average for the month and after this record cool start that certainly seems reasonable. The precipitation signal is not as clear cut with equal chances of having a wetter than normal, drier than normal, or near normal month in that regard. At least, we do not have a strong dry signal such as occurred last year for the month of May.

That takes care of the longer range guidance, what about the near term?

As mentioned, look for temperatures to be trending upward this week, but it will take awhile to get to some semblance of normal for the month of May. We should see at least some sunshine this afternoon which despite northerly winds should get most of us into the lower 60s. That is still more than 10 degrees below normal, but will at least be much warmer than yesterday.

Monday will also see a light northerly wind, but lots more sunshine throughout the day. In fact, our skies should be clearing by early tonight which will allow for another very cool start with morning lows in the lower 40s and perhaps some patchy early morning fog. After that burns off, lots of sunshine but a light northerly wind will combine for afternoon highs to at least reach the lower 70s. Keep in mind that upper 70s is normal for this time of year.

Tuesday will have light and variable winds, eventually returning to a southerly direction by days end. Mostly cloudy skies are also expected but afternoon temperatures should reach the mid-upper 70s. After that, brisk southerly winds for Wed-Thu will bring our nights up to around the 60 degree mark and our days will be near 80. We will also have partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and chances for showers/storms. In fact, there will be a slight chance on Wed and a little better chance on Thurs.

Our next cool front still looks to be arriving sometime on Friday which will provide the best chance for showers/storms. The timing and strength of this system is very uncertain at this point, but it does appear that cooler conditions will be spreading back over the state for the coming weekend. By that I mean temperatures during the day back into the lower 70s, certainly nothing like what we have just experienced. There may also be some lingering showers into the day Saturday but Sunday looks dry for now.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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