Finally. The massive upper level cut off low has not moved far enough to the east that it is losing its impact. (Thus it's no longer a cut off low.) Yesterday the low was over Alabama but was still producing clouds over northern OK and even a few sprinkles across northwestern Arkansas. Our surface wind flow will continue to be from the northwest today and for most of tonight before the south winds return Tuesday in advance of our next weather maker. Temps today will move into the lower to mid-70s along with a sun-cloud mix. Some patchy morning fog will be likely in some of the valleys.
The upper air pattern will bring a mid-level storm system closer to the southern plains by the end of the week. This feature will allow the pressure to fall across southeastern Colorado Tuesday and our winds will back from the southeast in the 10 to 20 mph range. The surface winds will begin transporting low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico back into the southern and central plains by Wednesday and we may see a few showers or storms Wednesday morning across northern OK as this process continues ahead of the system. The chance will be around 30% for the Wednesday morning and midday time frame.
Our higher probability will begin Thursday and may continue through Saturday morning as the main upper level impulse draws closer to the region. GFS and EURO both depict this system weakening with time, but don't exactly offer a lot of confidence regarding the exact outcome of the system. One model brings a surface front across the area Friday morning with rain and storms and keeps Saturday mostly rain free. The other brings the front across Friday but also develops some post frontal precip Saturday before another front moves across the area Saturday with a shot of dry air Sunday. Our forecast will keep a chance of showers or storms in the 7 day planner for Wednesday through Saturday with higher probabilities Thursday into Friday.
Temps will be spring-like this week with morning lows closer to normal and highs in the upper 70s near 80 by Tuesday and Wednesday. Most of the area will stay in the upper 70s but a few locations south could experience slightly warmer air.
The air mass behind the departing system, either Saturday or Sunday, looks extremely pleasant for mid-May with highs in the lower 70s, north winds, and clear sky. The problem: at this point, we don't know if this will be Saturday or Sunday, or possibly the entire weekend! At this point, we'll keep a chance of showers in the Saturday forecast and have Sunday sunny and mild. Stay tuned for updates and refinements on the forecast.
The high in Tulsa yesterday was 60 recorded at 5:49pm.
The normal daily average high is 77 and the low is 56.
Our records include a high of 93 from 2003 and a low of 36 from 1944.
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Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.
Have a super great day!
PS. If you're new to the blog: I usually post before 5am every weekday. On occasion, during active weather, the post may not be updated until 5:20am. While I may offer insight on other forecast issues across the state, the main focus of the weather information detailed in this discussion is centered on Northeastern OK, part of southeastern Kansas, a small area of Northwestern Arkansas, and locations just south of I-40 and east of highway 69-75. I welcome your feedback. Thanks!