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Tuesday Morning Update

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Once again this morning we are experiencing some patchy fog and clouds across portions of northern OK.  The radar indicates a few scattered showers and storms across extreme western and northwestern OK.  These are moving eastward and a few could survive and brush the far northeastern portions of our area before dissipating around midday.  A few of the RAP runs indicate a shower or two could survive this  morning before thinning out at noon.  I may keep this 10% pop on the 7 day planner for today, but will watch the radar closely and punt on 3rd down if needed.   Despite the morning to midday clouds, temperatures will respond with highs in the mid to upper 70s for many spots along with southeast winds around 10 to 15 mph.  The overall pattern will represent a chance of showers and storms for the rest of the week along with spring-like conditions. 

The main upper level system of interest for the next few days is currently located across the west coast.  This low will slowly move eastward and weaken slightly while a few disturbances will round the base of the main trough and eject across the four corners and western sections of the southern plains.  The result will be the formation of thunderstorms for the next few days, and some of these could be severe.  A dry line is expected to sharpen across western OK today and tomorrow and will be a focus for thunderstorm development each afternoon.  As the scattered storms move eastward with time, the low level nocturnal jet is expected to aid the longevity of some of the storms into the early morning hours of Wednesday, and Thursday across northern OK.  Additionally, a distinct wave of energy will move into the area Thursday and Friday while a surface cold front will be approaching from the north.  All of these features will combine to increase the storm chances Thursday into Friday.   

The severe weather threat is currently low for eastern OK, but is not zero.  The wind shear is expected to be weak by May standards and the depth and quality of moisture in the lower to mid-part of the atmosphere, while initially poor, should be improving by the end of the week.  The main upper level system is modeled to weaken slightly compared to its current magnitude.  But May is the peak severe weather month of our season, and the climatology alone should cause us to remain vigilant of the system.  

The actual frontal passage is still up for grabs in the various data, but EURO and GFS data both seem to suggest a passage Friday.  The difference resides on the post frontal side for Saturday.  The GFS has suggested a few showers would be possible Saturday with the higher coverage to our south.  The EURO also suggest another boundary (or the impact of high pressure building into the region) with dry air and no precipitation Saturday into Sunday.  At this point, we'll continue to mention a slight chance of Saturday morning to midday showers, and keep Sunday sunny and dry.  We need to stress that additional changes to the weekend forecast are possible.  Check the forecast often for updates.

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 69 recorded at 5:36pm.

The normal daily average high is 77 and the low is 56.

Our daily records include a high of93 from 1918 and a low of 40 from 1931.

I'll be discussing the weather this morning with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News through the morning hours.

You'll also hear my state-wide and regional weather forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network stations throughout the state this morning.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone


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