The pattern will continue to be active for the remainder of the week as a series of weak upper level disturbances rotate around an upper level storm system located across the southwestern US. This morning a few showers and storms, elevated in nature, continue to slide across southern Kansas into part of extreme Northeastern OK, This activity is expected to weaken this morning and should not be severe. Additional storms will move near our area later tonight into Thursday morning. A few of these storms could be severe producing some marginally severe hail.
The main upper level pattern will support the opportunity for additional showers and storms Thursday into Friday morning across northern and eastern OK as the main upper level system draws near the central U.S. A dry line will again be a feature on interest this afternoon and tonight across western OK and part of North Texas. Warm and moist air will be located east of the dry line with dry, stable, and warm air residing west of the feature. Showers and storms will attempt to form later this afternoon in the vicinity of the dry line and could produce large hail and damaging winds. The window for storms to develop across the western and central part of the state will open up around the 3pm to 5pm time frame. The wind shear, while more than adequate for severe storms with large hail may not be adequate for wide spread tornado production, but a few tornado warnings across northwestern OK may be possible. We're moving into the higher climatological period for significant severe weather across the state, and we'll be watching model data and observational information closely for anything that may enhance severe weather parameters.
A cold front will move across the state sometime either late Thursday night or early Friday morning bringing north winds and drier air back to the region Friday afternoon and evening. Some of the operational models continue to hint at thunderstorms Thursday into Friday with the larger concentration of activity sliding southward by Friday morning. This should take the pops out of our immediate area after the Friday morning time period. Therefore we have elevated to keep the Saturday time period dry.
The EURO and GFS data support another cold front sliding down the central U.S. Saturday afternoon and evening. This boundary will reinforce the cool air for Sunday morning with temps dropping into the 40s and highs moving in the mid or upper 60s. North winds around 10 to 20 mph will be common Saturday and Sunday. The GFS does develop a small area of showers Saturday evening across southern Kansas and far northwestern OK, but these will more than likely not impact our immediate area.
The return surface flow by Tuesday will be from the southwest and could allow the temps to move into the upper 70s and the mid-80s Monday and Tuesday. Another system may be nearing the area by the middle of next week, but the main belt of westerly may slide slightly northward by the end of the week.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 77 recorded at 4:31 pm.
The normal daily high is 78 and the low is 57.
Our daily records today include a high of 97 recorded on this date in 1918 and a low of 37 recorded in 1938.
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I'll be discussing the weather this morning with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News through the morning and midday time period
You'll also hear my state-wide and regional forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network Affiliates.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.
Have a super great day!