The weak cold front is pushing southward this morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms located along the boundary. Most of the activity will be exiting the region during the early morning hours, but a few linger showers may be possible around midday behind the system. A few of the RAP runs indicate this slight possibility. Our highs today will be in the lower or even the mid-70s but the expected cloud cover should keep most of us in the lower 70s.
Overnight moderate to heavy rainfall occurred in a narrow area mainly east of Tulsa along the 412 corridor into Northwestern Arkansas. Several counties were included in flood warnings overnight with some locations receiving over 2 to 3 inches of rainfall. The water is subsiding in some of these areas this morning, but drivers should be aware of the potential for low water crossing areas to be flooded.
The weekend continues to look fairly good, but I also continue to think there will be a slight chance of a shower or storm Saturday with the second frontal passage during the afternoon and early evening. There may also be a few storms Sunday night along the Ok-Kansas state line. At this point in the forecast cycle, I think we'll add a 10% pop for Saturday afternoon and keep a 20% for Sunday evening along the northern portions of the area. Temps this weekend should be good with Saturday morning lows in the lower 50s and highs in the mid-70s. North winds will be prevalent around 10 mph for the first half of the day with some increasing wind speeds around 15 to 20 mph by later in the afternoon as the boundary approaches and clears the area. Sunday morning could start in the lower to mid-40s before wrapping up around 71 or so along with east to southeast winds by the afternoon. Again, a slight chance of a shower or storm can't be ruled out Sunday night across far NE Ok and SE Kansas.
The main pattern next week should feature warming air moving back across the southwestern U.S. This will translate to highs in the lower to mid-80s for the early to middle part of the week along with southwest winds Monday and Tuesday. The upper levels support another somewhat weak low moving closer to the area Wednesday and Thursday. This will cause a surface area of low pressure to develop across west TX or possibly the high plains of Texas Tuesday into Wednesday. Southerly flow Wednesday into Thursday will advance higher dew point temps northward into the state setting the stage for some thunderstorm activity.
The high in Tulsa yesterday was 73 recorded at 1:41pm.
The normal daily average high is 78 and the low is 57. Our daily records include a high of 93 recorded from 1963 and a low of 41 from 1909.
I'll be discussing the forecast today with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News.
You'll also hear my regional and state-wide forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the noon hour.
You'll find me on Face book and Twitter. https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6
Thanks for reading the Friday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.
Have a super great day and a nice weekend!