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Tuesday Morning Update

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Welcome to summer!  Or at least a taste of early summer!  We managed to hit 88 degrees yesterday in Tulsa for the official daytime high.  We'll be very close to 90 this afternoon along with sunny sky and southwest surface winds around 10 to 25 mph.  A storm system will be nearing the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing a chance for scattered showers and storms back to the region.  A few of the storms could be strong to severe across portions of North TX and south-central OK, but the severe weather threat will be relatively low by mid-May standards.  A much stronger system will be nearing the central U.S. this weekend with increasing severe weather threats anywhere from OK northward to Minnesota.  Our probabilities for the extended forecast, including the weekend will remain low, but the severe weather threat with any mature storms will be increasing. The higher chances this weekend for our immediate area may occur Sunday night into Monday morning.  We'll keep you posted.  

Our weather has been anything but normal for the past few months.  We've gone from the 30s and 40s and snow showers just a little over 10 days ago to temps approaching 90 today.  Our significant two year drought has taken a major hit with recent rainfall and abundant green vegetation across eastern OK while some of our neighbors in far Northwestern OK are still praying for any rain at all.   

The upper level system currently over the Baja will slide Northeast today and tomorrow while weakening.  This system is somewhat weak by normal May standards, but may still produce some strong to severe storms across the southern plains Wednesday into Thursday.  The exact location and timing details are still somewhat uncertain at this point, but we think the higher likelihood for storms Wednesday will be across the southern portion of the state.  Our probability for northern OK, including the Tulsa metro, will remain near 40% for Wednesday and 30% for Thursday.  After the Thursday morning time period, the upper level trough will be losing its impact across the state, but another major storm will be rapidly approaching.  The clouds may keep us just a hair below 80 Wednesday and Thursday for daytime highs.   

The surface air flow will remain from the south for the next few days and abundant low level moisture will eventually move from the Gulf into the southern and central U.S.  The depth and quality of moisture will be more than sufficient for severe weather this weekend as the upper air system nears the region.  The positioning of the trough will also allow sufficient wind shear and speed shear meaning super cellular thunderstorms will be likelihood this weekend across a large portion of the plains states.  The higher likelihood for storms this weekend may be slightly north of the immediate area of concern, but our forecast may undergo changes in the pop structure a few times before we draw into the weekend.  The data, at this point, will not bring a surface boundary through the area until sometime early next week with the EURO being a whole day slower compared to the GFS.   

Temps will remain very warm today and above the seasonal averages for the remainder of the 7 day planner. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 88 from 5:16pm.

The normal high is 79 and the normal low is 59.

Our daily records include a high of 93 from 1911 and a low of 44 from 1976, 1953, and 1924.

 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter @alancrone

 

I'll be discussing our weather this morning with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning NEWs.

 

You'll hear my state-wide and regional forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state. 

 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

 

Have a super great day!

 

Alan Crone

 

 

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