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Significant Chance Severe Storms Next Few Days.

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Strongly advise keeping a close eye on the sky over the next several days as we will be under the gun for several rounds of severe weather. This looks to be a prolonged event with severe storms in W OK later today and tonight, then our turn will come late Sunday and Sunday night, again Monday and Monday night, and then just east of us for Tuesday the way things are looking right now. All modes of severe weather will be possible which means large hail, damaging winds, dangerous lightning, and tornadoes

The storms that develop for the western counties later today/tonight will try to make a run at this side of the state but should be falling apart during the overnight hours. Will carry a slight chance for tonight in case a few of them can make it very far past I-35. There is a strong capping inversion aloft for today/tonight that is expected to inhibit storm development for E OK and also weaken those storms that come our way.

However, for Sunday through Monday and into the day Tuesday the synoptic scale forcing for vertical development will be much closer to this side of the state and we expect severe storms to be developing explosively during the late afternoon hours, continue well into the night followed by another round Monday and into Monday night. Showers/storms should be more confined to the more eastern counties on Tuesday as a weak cool front should finally make it through the state by Tuesday night giving us at least one rain free day for this coming Wednesday.

With the repeated nature of the showers/storms, not only will there be the risk of severe weather, there will also be the potential for flooding rains. The QPF map on the right shows NE OK under a bulls-eye with the potential for up to 3 inches of rain. Quite frankly, would not be at all surprised if some locations wound up with much more than that.

This is a very dynamic set-up and there will likely be considerable day to day variation due to the residual effects of the showers/storms that occurred the preceding day. Again, I strongly advise keeping up to date on the latest weather situation on a day by day basis.

As mentioned, it looks like this coming Wednesday will provide a break with sunshine, a NW breeze, and somewhat milder temperatures as compared to the very warm, humid conditions of the next couple of days. Not for long, however. It appears the moisture will quickly return for later in the week with almost daily chances of showers/storms along with very warm, humid conditions.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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