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Threat of Severe Storms and Heavy Rainfall Next Few Days.

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As mentioned yesterday, strongly advise keeping a close eye on the weather for the next couple of days. There remains a significant threat of severe storms late this afternoon and into the night tonight and again Monday into Monday night as well as on Tuesday. All modes of severe weather will be possible and due to the prolonged nature of this event there may well be some flooding rains by the time it is all said and done as well.

The first map on the right shows the rainfall across the state over the last 24 hours, courtesy of the OK Mesonet and augmented by radar estimates from the River Forecast Center here in Tulsa. The track of the heaviest cells is pretty evident and some locations in SW OK went from drought to flood in a matter of hours.

The second map on the right shows the QPF estimate valid through this coming Wed morning. Keep in mind, this is an areal estimate of the rainfall potential through that time frame. The bulls-eye in NE OK is obvious where nearly 4" of rain may occur. Would not be surprised if some locations received more than that which could result in significant drainage problems depending on exactly where and how fast those heaviest rains occur.

At any rate, this is going to be a very active pattern for at least the next several days. Abundant low level moisture will provide the fuel for shower/t'storm development and also resulting in very warm, humid conditions. Look for daytime highs to be well into the 80s this afternoon before the storms get started and relative humidity levels to be dropping off to only around 50%. Although we will have some sunshine this afternoon not much in the way of sunshine is expected for the next few days so afternoon temperatures will likely only be in the lower 80s. However, the abundant low level moisture remains in place until perhaps Wednesday when we may see a bit of a break, but even that is uncertain now.

The moisture in place together with a dry line that will try to mix further eastward this afternoon and a weak frontal boundary that will be dropping into the state over the next few days together with boundaries left over from earlier convection makes for a very complicated scenario. Also, a strong jet streak aloft will be moving overhead so all of these factors combine to create the severe weather pattern we will be dealing with for the next few days.

We are currently looking for that pattern to break down by the middle of the week and am cautiously optimistic that we may have at least a brief break in the daily rains for Wednesday. After that, a more zonal flow aloft with another deep trough eventually carving out a place to our west will provide for slightly warmer than normal temperatures and still a slight chance of showers/storms. However, the severe threat should be much lower by then.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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