This quick summary and discussion will focus on the short term issues this morning through the afternoon along with some information regarding our extended forecast.
This morning we continue to see a slow moving cold front located across central and northeastern OK. This boundary is slowly moving southeast with showers and storms ongoing this morning across a southeastern OK and part of western Arkansas. The severe weather threat this morning is not high, but it's not zero either. Flood issues will remain for portions of Northeastern and southeastern OK through the midday and afternoon time period. A flash flood watch is posted for portions of these areas with heavy rainfall possible, in some locations, through the midday time period.
This boundary will slide southeast during the next few hours bringing more rain and storms across southeastern OK and western Arkansas during the next few hours. The severe weather threat later today may allow for a few strong to severe storms across far east-central OK but the moderate risk of tornadoes will be located across extreme southeastern OK and northeastern Texas. Regardless, remain aware of your weather surroundings just in case warnings are issued for your area.
Some of the short range and high resolution data support some rain and storms developing behind the boundary and sliding across portions of central, northeastern, and southern OK through the midday and early afternoon time period. If this occurs, our highs today may stay in the lower or mid-70s with clouds for most of the day. If the zone of precip stays just south of the I-40 corridor, our highs may move to around 77 or so with partly sunny conditions by late afternoon. At this point (3am) I'm leaning toward a cloudy and wet solution with a decent chance of showers and storms north of the boundary through the midday and early afternoon period. This would also result in periods of moderate to heavy rain with some flooding potential in low lying areas.
Some of the data will keep Wednesday dry with a partly sunny sky along with highs in the lower 80s. But this boundary near our area today may lift northward across the northern third of the state by Thursday as another upper level system approaches the state. Our wind flow Thursday into Friday combined with the upper level flow may allow for a small complex of storms to form across the panhandle region and move southeast with time late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and then again late Thursday night into Friday morning. If these complexes do form, they would more than likely remain away from the majority of our area of concern. Locations across the western and south-central part of the state would be in the running for these pops. Friday I will include a slightly higher pop as most data support some showers and storms sliding across northern OK at midday.
The weekend offers some controversy. Both GFS and EURO offer a mid-level ridging component across southern OK into Texas, but the EURO attempts to slide a very weak disturbance across southern Kansas Saturday and Sunday providing just enough influence for thunderstorms across the northern third of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Due to the lack of consistency in the data, I will keep only a 20% pop in the forecast for the weekend with highs in the 80s.
Bottom line regarding extended pops: We'll keep a slight chance Thursday, about a 30% pop Friday, and 20% pops for both Saturday and Sunday. The late week system will not be a robust storm system but a few strong to severe storms will remain a slight possibility.
Daytime highs will range mainly in the mid 80s this weekend.
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I'll be discussing the forecast this morning with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News. You'll hear my state-wide forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state.
Thanks for reading this abbreviated version of the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.
Have a good day.