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Wednesday Morning Update

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Finally.  A morning with no thunderstorm activity on the radar.  We do have a chance for some showers and storms in the extended forecast and even a slight chance Thursday.  More on that later in the discussion. 

This morning we do see the potential for some patchy fog across portions of the region due to abundant rainfall yesterday across the area.  The greater fog potential will remain across the southern third of the area, but some patchy fog will be possible near the Tulsa metro around sunrise with mostly clear sky and light wind.  Later today sunshine should be the call but a few clouds will also be in the mix with afternoon highs in the upper 70s near 80.  Light Northwest will prevail for the first half of the day, with southwesterly winds by afternoon, and southeasterly winds later in the evening.  

Now regarding early Thursday morning.  For the last few days, the NAM has consistently suggested a chance for early Thursday morning convection located across southern Kansas and part of northern OK as an upper level disturbance slides across the state and a weak surface boundary moves southward.  A quasi warm frontal boundary could possibly be located across central OK as southeasterly winds late Wednesday night bring higher dew-points back into the northern third of the state.  Some of the other model data suggests any showers or storms Thursday will not occur until the afternoon, and mainly across the far northwestern sections of the state.  This would "fit" the normal expectation with the pattern we're seeing in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  But...I don't think we can ignore the NAMs suggestion for this time period and I will keep the mention for Thursday morning in for the forecast.  The very latest guide indicates this chance may stay slightly west of our immediate area.  Ill keep it only a 10% pop but this may come up later today.  Daytime highs Thursday will end up in the upper 70s due to the increase in clouds.  

Friday into the weekend.  Again, a little more in the way of controversy regarding the " exact" outcome, but we're very confident in the overall pattern and support for some scattered storms across southern Kansas and Northeastern OK.  A mid-level ridge will develop Friday into part of the weekend across the southern plains, with the main impact located across Texas and part of southern OK.  Atop the ridge, a weak upper level short wave will move across or near central Kansas this weekend causing surface pressures to fall to our west.  Southeast winds in the 10 to 20 mph range will advect low level moisture into the southern and central plains with scattered showers or storms expected, more so along the northern OK and southern Kansas vicinity   Morning lows in the upper 60s will be followed by highs in the lower to mid-80s.  The EURO seems to be the model suggesting a more widespread coverage over a larger area of eastern OK Saturday.  A few storms could be strong to severe but a big severe weather event is not currently expected.  I must stress the EURO solution would require a much higher storm chance Saturday and could alter some Saturday afternoon plans at the Lake or the Golf course!  I have increased our Saturday pops, but this may also go higher.  Stay tuned for updates.  

You'll hear my regional and statewide forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the noon hour. 

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Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.


Have a good day.


Alan Crone



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