This Memorial Day weekend looks rather promising for the most part with only slight chances of showers/storms, partly cloudy skies, and warm, windy conditions. Keep the sunscreen handy for protection from sunburns. Even though there will be a sun/cloud mix there will still be plenty of sunshine, particularly the dangerous UV component, for sun burns to be a problem.
Our chances of a shower or storm are non-zero through Memorial Day itself, but only on the order of 20% or so for today and Sunday and even less than that on Monday. Any storms that do develop will be primarily during the late afternoon hours and will quickly fall apart after dark. The primary issue with those will be the lightning and perhaps some gusty winds as they dissipate but the threat of anything severe is very remote.
Temperatures will be running a bit above normal throughout the coming week with morning lows well into the 60s and daytime highs well into the 80s. Lower 60s and lower 80s is the normal diurnal temperature range for this time of year to put things in perspective.
The main issue will be the wind as the pressure gradient will be tightening up over the next few days producing gusty southerly winds. For today, those winds will be on the order of 10-20 mph with some higher gusts and more like 15-30 mph for Sunday and Monday. Gusts both of those days could be well over 30 mph, particularly for the more NW counties. The more SE counties are protected somewhat from the stronger winds most of the time due to the terrain, but it will still be relatively windy even down there.
These general conditions should prevail through the middle of the coming week with strong southerly winds, partly cloudy skies, only a remote chance of a shower/storm, and above normal temperatures. However, along about the Thu/Fri time frame another, stronger system aloft will be developing to our west and moving this direction. There are more questions than answers at this point since the longer range guidance is still somewhat inconsistent. But, the current trends would suggest an increased chance of showers/storms along with an increased chance of severe weather during that time frame. In fact, the European suite of guidance in particular would suggest this system as having the potential to produce a significant round of severe weather across the state. Again, lots can change between now and then so just consider this a heads-up. After all, it is still May in Oklahoma.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.
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