A major upper level system located across the western third of the country will be the driver for rain and storm chances over the next several days. The rich and abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is continuing to stream northward and will be more than sufficient for periods of heavy rainfall and severe storms.
This morning we're tracking some "left over" storms that formed last night across western TX As these showers and storms approach northwestern OK this morning, current indications support the activity weakening and basically falling apart within the next two hours or so. Later this afternoon additional storms are likely to erupt along a dry line feature located across far western OK. Some storms may develop around the noon hour across southwestern OK and the along the western half of the state around 2pm. Storms may be nearing or developing near the I-35 corridor between 2pm and 4pm. Some hi-res model data brings storm activity near the Tulsa area between 8pm and midnight. The evolution after midnight is not exactly clear at this hour, but we'll keep storms in the forecast for the overnight periods at this point in the forecast cycle.
I must also stress a small chance for storms to develop well ahead of the main system. Some hi-res data also supports storms forming across eastern OK by midday to early afternoon. These would not be severe at first, but could be severe by afternoon if they form at all. The chance for midday to early afternoon storms in Tulsa is around 20% with a 70% chance of late evening storms approaching the area.
Strong winds aloft combined with a highly unstable atmosphere will support severe storms with very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, especially across the western half of the state today. The storms are expected to be super cells during the early portion of the event this afternoon but congeal into one or more storm complex ( mesoscale convective systems) and move east with time. As the storms become more of a complex, the threat late tonight into the early Thursday morning period will be heavy rainfall and some damaging wind gusts.
Thursday afternoon and evening yet another round of showers and storms will be possible along and slightly ahead of the dry line that will be severe. These storms will also take a run at our area by late Thursday evening into early Friday. At this point, a surface low will be developing across northwestern OK and an east to west boundary may be near or slightly north of the Oklahoma state line. These features will be watched very carefully not only Thursday evening but also Friday. Late Thursday night into Friday morning a strong low level jet is also forecast to remain in place that may keep storms strong to severe during the overnight and early Friday morning hours.
Friday night into Saturday the main upper level system will be located across the central plains states, but a stout disturbance will rotate around the base of the trough finally shoving the cold front across northern OK by Saturday morning or early afternoon. This feature will also allow for a broad area of thunderstorms that will be strong to severe. Heavy rainfall will also be a threat along the boundary.
Our temps will remain in the lower 80s for the rest of the work-week with gusty south winds in the 15 to 30 mph range. Morning lows will be in the lower 70s. Temps Sunday and Monday will be relatively cooler behind the boundary with morning lows in the upper 50s or lower 60s and highs Sunday near 80 and Monday in the lower 80s.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 82 recorded at 4:41pm.
The normal daily average high is 83 and the low is 63.
Our daily records include a high of 98 from 1926 and a low of 40 from 1947.
You'll hear my state-wide regional forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state.
You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6
I'll also be discussing the weather with Dan Potter this morning on The KRMG Morning News in Tulsa.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.
Have a super great day!