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Another Unsettled Pattern into Thursday.

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Needless to say, this has been a hectic period recently and another unsettled weather pattern is back in place for another couple of days. But, before getting around to that wanted to take a moment and look back at this past Spring.

What a contrast from this Spring to Spring of 2012! The difference in the average temperature was nearly 11 degrees since Spring of 2012 was the warmest on record and this year has been the 4th coolest on record. By the way, for our purposes the weather community considers Spring to be the calendar months of Mar-May. Interestingly enough, Spring of last year was actually wetter than this year, at least at the ‘official' recording site out at Tulsa International Airport. The reason is that March of last year was very wet, April was near normal and then the flash drought set in during May. March of this year was quite dry, April slightly drier than normal and May has also been drier than normal. However, there has been widespread much heavier rains all around us as the 30 day rainfall map on the right clearly shows. The immediate Tulsa area is in a bit of a donut hole as you can see.

That was then, how about now? As mentioned, we are back into another unsettled period which started with the mesoscale convective complex(MCC) that moved across the state early this morning. The flow aloft is undergoing some amplification with a more NW flow pattern which will eventually push a cool front through the state. However, the front will not clear things out until late Thursday and Friday so between now and then we will have what we refer to as a NW flow pattern which is favorable for showers/storms, some of which will be severe.

Cannot rule a few isolated showers/storms developing in the immediate area late this afternoon, but the more likely scenario would be another complex developing in the high plains and then coming our way later tonight or into the morning hours of Wednesday. The actual cool front should be arriving Wed evening/night so another round of showers/storms is expected late Wed and into the overnight hours. Severe weather will be possible with both events; primarily a wind/hail type event.

After that, improving conditions are expected for Thursday afternoon with any lingering showers/storms confined to the extreme southern portions of the state and northerly winds. Friday should have lots of sunshine and relatively mild conditions with morning lows back into the upper 50s for some locations. Saturday is also looking pretty good as well.

Sunday and going into next week is looking more summer-like with daytime highs well into the 80s and possibly some around the 90 degree mark. Also, another slight chance of a shower/storm may take place on any given day.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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