Once again, another MCS ( mesoscale convective system) is tracking across the northern OK and southern Kansas area this morning as I post this discussion (3:15AM). There will continue to be a chance for some severe thunderstorm warning criteria in the form of wind and some hail. But eventually gusty outflows ahead of the system will tend to undercut the updrafts and storms should gradually weaken. The fast forward motion will limit the flash flooding potential but some areas could experience small stream or street level flooding for a few hours or so due to the presence of already saturated ground.
This complex formed in an up-slope easterly wind component last night around sunset across SE Colorado and part of southwestern Kansas. The mid-level wind profile is favorable for bringing these storm complexes east to southeast across our area, which is somewhat normal for early June in Oklahoma. This pattern may also allow another storm complex to form later this afternoon and evening across part of southern Kansas or northern OK and move east-southeast with time into southeastern OK. This possible complex may also be severe with hail and wind the main threat. The tornado risk remains low with the current pattern, but I must stress is not zero.
A surface cold front is located to our north this morning and will move southward with time today crossing the Tulsa metro by mid afternoon or so. The presence of this boundary later today may also provide a focus some storm development but I think the higher likelihood will continue to be some post frontal storms that will congeal into another complex impacting part of our area Wednesday overnight into Thursday morning, especially across the southern third of our area. Some thunderstorm activity seems likely Thursday morning but should quickly move southward out of our area allowing for decreasing clouds late, north winds by afternoon, and highs in the upper 70s near 80 Thursday afternoon. Super great weather will be likely Friday with morning lows in the upper 50s followed by daytime highs nearing 79 with north winds at 10 mph.
The next in a series of weak waves will draw near our area by the weekend. This should allow surface pressures to fall across the front range of the Rockies into western Kansas and our surface winds will back from the east-southeast by Saturday afternoon and evening. This process could bring moisture back into northern OK and southern Kansas by late Saturday or early Sunday setting the stage for a chance of storms. While the data has offered various solutions, the pattern would support a chance of storms that may even be strong to near severe pre-dawn Sunday across the extreme northern OK and southern Kansas vicinity if a quasi-warm frontal boundary indeed develops in this region. As posted here yesterday morning, it's still too early to pin point the Sunday or Monday storm threat, but we currently will carry only slight chances in the forecast for this period. At this point, the data has backed off the precipitation chances compared to previous runs, but I'll keep a slight chance of storms for the Sunday forecast across extreme northern OK.
Temps should warm next week with morning lows in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 90s. Welcome to June.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 81 recorded at 5:15pm.
The normal daily average high is 85 and the low is 65.
Our daily records include a high of 102 from 1911 and a low of 49 recorded on this date in 1919.
I'll also be on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network Affiliates through the noon hour with state-wide and regional weather forecasts.
You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6
Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.
Have a super great day!
A post script:
Our friends at NWS OUN have been doing more research and damage assessment with the El Reno tornado and published this information yesterday on their web site:
"The El Reno tornado of May 31, 2013 has been upgraded to an EF-5 with maximum wind speeds of 295 mph. The tornado was 2.6 miles wide at its widest, making it the widest tornado in U.S. history. This is still preliminary and stats may be tweaked as more becomes available. "