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Slight Chance Storms Today, Then Just Hot/Humid.

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We have had a nice little run so far for the month of June as temperatures have averaged nearly 5 degrees below normal. But, that is coming to an end as above normal temperatures will be the general rule throughout the coming week and most likely for the following week as well. Not only will it be getting hotter, but drier as any chances of rain will be in the slim to none category for the foreseeable future.

The showers/storms that were expected during the overnight hours and into the day today split on us with most of the activity staying further north along the OK/KS state line or further south and into TX. That is a bit unusual considering the NW flow pattern aloft and what appeared to be a more favorable environment for rain. As the day wears on, there is a weak residual surface boundary in the area leaving a more N to NW wind in some locations and light southerly winds for others. The pressure pattern is quite weak though and the winds will be light. Even so, there remains a slight chance that a few showers/storms could form during the afternoon or early evening hours and if any can get going would pose the potential for localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

A few isolated showers/storms may pop up during the day Monday as well, but will be just that; very isolated. As the week wears on the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall will be in the slim to none category as ridging aloft will be building over the state. That puts an effective cap on any showers/storms with the possible exception of one or two that could form over the more terrain favored areas on any given day. The chances of even that are too low to put in the forecast though.

So, that basically leaves us with temperatures as the primary forecast challenge and this will be our first experience with heat and humidity this year. I mention that not because it is unusual for us at this time of year, but because we have been so cool up to this point that it may take a little longer than usual to acclimate so be careful with the outdoor activities.

After reaching the mid 80s today which is right at normal, low-mid 90s are expected throughout the coming week. However, the grass is green and the soils are wet and there will be adequate low level moisture to keep the dew point temperature in the upper 60s if not near 70 for much of the week as well. I mention that because that in turn means the heat and humidity will combine to push the heat index into the upper 90s to possibly near 100 as the week progresses.

Brisk southerly winds will provide some useful ventilation for the early part of the coming week. A weak boundary may draw near along about Thu/Fri with lighter winds but little or no mention of rain. So, it looks like a hot, humid, mostly dry forecast not only for the coming week but the following week as well. Notice the maps on the right which have a strong signal suggesting above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for the week of Jun 16-22. Looks very summer-like.

So, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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