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Thursday Morning Update

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A weak front will arrive this morning across northern OK and move south of Tulsa before stalling near the I-40 corridor.  No rain is expected with this boundary despite abundant low level moisture as the temps in the mid-level of the atmosphere will be too warm to support upward vertical development.  

The mid-level ridge that has been the dominate feature of interest the past few days will slide east and then southeast as it weakens during the next few days.  A weak upper trough near southwest TX will slide across the back side of the surface ridge and into the state Saturday and Sunday bringing a chance for scattered showers and storms to portions of eastern OK.  The position of the mid-level ridge by Sunday and Monday will allow the upper air flow to be from the northwest.  This upper air pattern is favorable for late night and early morning storm complexes ( MSC) to move across the central plains and possibly enter portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.  The upper flow two weeks ago was dominated by a northwest flow pattern and this allowed for numerous rounds of rain and storms.  This pattern change will continue through at least Tuesday or Wednesday before the ridge centers back up across north TX and central OK bringing the heat back to the area and with little rain and storm chance by late next week. 

Our forecast for this cycle will call for a slight chance of showers or storms Saturday night into Sunday morning with slight better chances for organized storms ( MCS) across northern OK Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.  We'll continue to keep the chance very conservative for this update, but the probability could increase during the next few forecast update cycles.  

Temps today will be around 90 to 93 in the Tulsa metro with light northeast winds.  Temps could be slightly cooler (upper 80s) to the northeast of the metro.  The temperature heat index may still be near 100 due to the light winds and relative humidity.  Temps will move back to the mid-90s Friday with a southeast wind around 10 mph.  Heat index values may approach 104 Friday.  

The weekend numbers will feature lows in the lower to mid-70s with highs in the upper 80s or lower 90s.  

The official high in Tulsa was 95 recorded at 4:40pm.

The normal daily average high is 87 and the low is 67.

Our daily records include a high of 101 from 1924 and a low of 52 from 1985.


You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.



I'll be discussing the forecast this morning with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News in Tulsa.


You'll also hear my regional and state-wide forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliate stations across the state.


Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.


Have a super great day. 


Alan Crone


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