We expect another toasty afternoon with highs in the mid-90s along with temperature heat index values from 100 to 104. Southeast winds will be common today in the 8 to 14 mph range. The mid-level ridge responsible for the early summer preview will be weakening and sliding southeast this weekend allowing for an unsettled weather pattern for the next several days including the chance of thunderstorms.
The first chance for a few scattered showers and storms will arrive Saturday as a tropical like upper tropospheric trough will slide up from south TX into the state with scattered showers and storms developing to the east of this feature. This chance will mainly be confined to the late Saturday evening into Sunday morning hours and will be represented by a 30% pop on the map even though the last run of the GFS is a little wetter for the day tomorrow. Highs Saturday will still be expected in the lower 90s with southeast winds and muggy conditions. Water values are high and scattered storms Saturday may produce some pockets of heavy rainfall, but only in very localized areas.
The next chance will be arriving early next week from Monday through Wednesday or even Thursday as the mid-level ridge will be well south of the state allowing for a period of northwesterly flow winds aloft to brush Oklahoma and Kansas. Several runs of both the GFS and EURO suggest a couple of MCS events ( storm complexes) that could move across southern Kansas and Northern OK during this period. The favored time periods would be after midnight Sunday into early Monday morning and possibly late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The data also suggest another frontal passage may be possible Tuesday with north winds and highs in the mid or upper 80s. The ridge will re-establish itself near our area by late next week allowing for more hot air and muggy conditions. As I have stated in this blog last week, I think the ridge is not the big "death ridge" that will keep us hot and dry for the entire summer. We'll probably see this ridge break down again early next week with additional storm chances to follow for the middle to end of the next week.
There are also some suggestions of a tropical like system in the southern Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week. Stay tuned.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 93 recorded at 4:59 pm.
The normal daily average high is 87 and the low is 67.
Our daily records include a high of107 from 1911 and a low of 51 from both 1942 and 1933.
I'll be discussing the weather this morning with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News in Tulsa.
You'll also hear my state-wide and regional weather forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the noon hour.
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Have a super great day!