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Happy Father's Day! Storms Likely Later Tonight.

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For you Dads out there, Happy Father's Day. Most of the day should be OK as far as the weather is concerned, although there will be a chance of some scattered showers/storms developing during the afternoon or early evening hours. We will also have partly cloudy to at times mostly cloudy skies along with a SE wind up around 10-12 mph. The clouds will keep temperatures from getting too far out of hand with daytime highs generally in the upper 80s to around 90 which is just a bit above normal for this time of year. A much better chance of showers/storms is expected for the overnight hours and into the morning of Monday.

Some of the storms yesterday were locally quite strong and as you can see from the first map on the right, some locations picked up more than an inch of rain over the last 24 hours. In fact, there were some additional reports which had more than 2" in a few spots and it came all at once creating localized drainage issues. The second map on the right is the estimated QPF valid through this coming Wednesday morning. As you can see, we have the potential for several more inches over that time frame. Some of that may also fall in a short period of time creating localized drainage issues once again. Bottom line is that we will be in a relatively unsettled pattern through the first part of the coming week with the potential for showers/storms through Wednesday and some of them may be locally quite strong. A few may even be marginally severe with localized damaging wind gusts and small hail.

This is all due to a pattern change in the winds aloft. The upper level ridge that dominated much of last week with the hot, dry conditions has weakened considerably. It will eventually become re-established and build back over us by this coming weekend. In the meantime, we will have a NW flow pattern aloft whereas at the surface the winds will be from a more E to SE direction. Those surface winds are an upslope wind and when there is adequate moisture, that will result in showers/storms forming in the higher elevations out west. The available moisture is more than adequate, in fact it is well above normal for this time of year throughout a considerable depth of the atmosphere.

That all means that the upslope flow out west together with plenty of moisture and the daytime heating will produce a complex of storms that will be moving our way in the NW flow aloft and should be moving through later tonight and quite likely lingering well into the morning hours of Monday. Locally, there is also adequate moisture and enough instability for some scattered showers/storms to pop up during the heat of the day this afternoon.

We may get a repeat performance Monday night into Tuesday morning although the signal is not as clearly defined just yet. At any rate, expect a decent chance of showers/storms later this afternoon, a much better chance later tonight into Monday, another decent chance for Tuesday and possibly another round on Wednesday.

After that, the ridge aloft will start to become more dominant cutting off all but a few showers/storms that may form over the more favored terrain locations going into the weekend. It will also be hot & humid going into the coming weekend.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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