Welcome to Tuesday. This morning's MCS activity (storm complex) is located well west of the immediate area, across the high plains of Texas extending southwest across north TX. Another small complex is located across southwestern Nebraska and should remain away from our area this morning. The upper air pattern will continue to support a chance for some showers and storm chances until Thursday morning but the data has backed off the probability for our immediate area when comparing model runs of the previous days. I've configured the forecast mainly based on the pattern and not necessarily on any one model or data set, but will keep the pops on the low side for the next few days. The northwest flow aloft can lead to some early morning surprises if one is not careful. I hope this is not the case for us during the next few days!
The upper air flow continues to be from the northwest to the southeast and is a typical pattern for this time of year. Another complex is expected to develop later tonight across part of Southeastern Colorado or even western Kansas before moving southeast Wednesday morning through midday. The NAM and GFS keeps this MCS to our west, but the actual trajectory could easily be more eastward bringing the system closer to our area. Another possible MCS could impact part of southeastern Kansas or even extreme northeastern OK Thursday morning before the mid-level ridge of high pressure builds back into the southern plains. The mid-level ridge will be responsible for shutting off the organized MCS chance and will bring the heat back to the state. Daytime highs in the lower to mid-90s will be common from Thursday (92) into the weekend (95). The recent rainfall may keep us from the 95 this weekend and I may lower this number a degree or two before air-time today. The tropical-like air-mass will remain entrenched across the eastern OK vicinity and temperature heat index values may reach the 100 to 103 by part of the weekend.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 81 recorded at 12:27pm.
The normal daily average high is 88 and the low is 69.
Our records include a high of 104 from 1918 and a low of 54 from 1912.
You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6
I'll be discussing the weather with Dan Potter this morning on The KRMG Morning News.
You'll hear my state-wide and regional weather forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.
Have a super great day!