Good Morning! Welcome to Wednesday.
The pattern hasn't transitioned yet, but we're at the bottom of the 9th, and the game is about to change. Our mid-level ridge of high pressure will once again build across the southern plains nudging northward across part of Oklahoma. This will change the upper air flow and keep the MCS highway (storm complex pathway) away from the state. But today and tomorrow, the highway narrows to a one lane road still capable of bringing a few more chances to the state.
This morning we are tracking another decaying storm complex moving across part of the Panhandle and sections of Northwestern OK. This system will move east to southeast and should continue to weaken. Some of the high resolution models bring the system into central OK this morning before the system totally falls apart. I will more than likely carry a slight pop in the forecast today just in case this system moves further eastward than anticipated. There may also be an outflow boundary or two that could reside near central Ok later today providing a focus for a few storms with afternoon heating. This may be more of a short term " now cast" issue later today.
Another complex of thunderstorm activity is expected to form later tonight across southeastern Colorado or western Kansas and move southeast with time. By early Thursday morning, this complex may slide across part of southeastern Kansas or even northern OK. Another complex may also develop later today across Nebraska or north-central Kansas and move southeast by Thursday morning. There's a slight chance this system could move into the northern part of the state Thursday morning to midday. A few of the latest NAM runs are indicating this should be a decent chance in our forecast, but the mid-level ridge may grow northward by this time preventing the system from entering our area. Thus, we're sticking with only a slight chance of showers or storms both today and tomorrow before we start to bring the daytime highs back into the mid-90s and shut off the precip chances.
Temperatures today will be around 89 with East winds shifting to the southeast by midday in the 10 to 15 mph range. Readings Thursday morning should begin the lower 70s and move into the lower 90s along with southeast winds around 15 mph. By the weekend, our numbers will go above the normal high with most locations easily reaching 91 to 94 and some spots (Tulsa metro) reaching 93 to 94. The temperature next index values may climb from 99 to 103 by the weekend along with southeast winds around 10 to 15 mph. Partly cloudy conditions this weekend should help keep readings from getting too warm.
Sufficient low level moisture will remain in place across the eastern OK-western Arkansas vicinity and a few late afternoon to early evening storms could develop across portions of extreme eastern OK near Sequoyah, Leflore, or Adair counties eastward into Western Arkansas. This is very common for mid-June.
The extended data (which has not be consistent lately) continues to suggest the mid-level ridge will migrate eastward to the southeastern Colorado region by early next week and intensify. This would crank the heat across western OK to near triple digits and keep our temps in the mid or even upper 90s. The organized storm chances would remain removed from the state by the middle of next week if this pattern verifies.
And...it probably should. We're moving to the summer solstice Friday, and it appears our weather patterns will also cooperate on schedule for our immediate area.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 89 recorded at 3:33pm.
The normal daily average high is 89 and the low is 69.
Our records include a high of 106 from 1918 and a low of 51 from 1912.
You'll hear my forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network Affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.
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Have a super great day!