The temps may come up for the short term, but may go down in the long term! Unlike yesterday morning, we are not seeing any thunderstorms across northern OK but a few isolated storms are located across portions of south-central Kansas this morning. These storms are not expected to move into our area.
The short term issues involve the westward movement and expansion of the mid-level ridge. Most if not all data support the center of the ridge building across the four corners area of the U.S. during the next 24 hours. This position of the ridge is very common for late June. Data also suggest the ridge will intensify and allow even warmer air to spread across southeastern Colorado, Western Kansas, and much of western and central OK. All of these areas may hit triple digits, while locations across eastern OK could stay in the mid to upper 90s. The lush green vegetation continues to pump moisture back into the atmosphere which tends to offset the potential temperature we could experience. Eventually, possibly even this week, the evapotranspiration rate will be overcome and temps will climb. The Tulsa metro will have a chance to see 100 Thursday ahead of a cold front when surface winds may veer from the southwest allowing some compression of the air directly ahead of the boundary. This front should cross the Tulsa area but may stall along the I-40 corridor Friday, but another stronger front may arrive Saturday into Sunday due to a major pattern change in the upper air flow.
Back to Thursday: I'll keep the high right at 99 but we could hit 100.
By this weekend, the ridge may retro-grade so far to the west that it allows a northwest or even northerly flow aloft to develop across the southern and central plains as a strong trough also develops across Hudson Bay. This solution continues to have decent support in the EURO and GFS ensemble data and would bring temps down Sunday into early next week, possibly into the 80s for highs! This pattern would be fairly unusual for early July. The projected upper air flow would also give us a slight chance of showers or storms, but at this point, the forecast will only call for slight chances in the extended forecast with a 10% for Friday, and a 20% chance for Sunday. A sneak peek into the 3rd and 4th of July indicates a trough may swing across the state with rain and storm chances.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 93 recorded at 4:08pm.
The normal daily average high is 90 and the low is 70.
Daily records include a high of 105 from 2012 and 1933. The record low is 52 from 1974.
You'll hear my forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the early morning and noon hours.
I'll also be discussing the forecast with Dan Potter and The KRMG Morning News in Tulsa.
You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6
Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.
Have a super great day!